Friday, December 3

Naturgy’s power struggle raises doubts about its price

Naturgy put an end to months of uncertainty around the IFM takeover bid with the presentation of results that welcomed the Australian fund with a net profit until September of 777 million, but far from boosting its price, the hangover of the operation has left analysts divided over its future potential.

Victor Peiro, director of analysis of GVC Gaesco Values, explained in the market closure podcast that he expected the company to remain relatively public, and that opinion is echoed in different analyst reports.

“It is a company that in my opinion is a little out of date in terms of the energy transition in Spain,” Peiro said before the microphones. “We before it was the opa of IFM We thought that this company had to accelerate a lot in two points: the sale of assets […] and renewables “.

The director of analysis of GVC Gaesco Values He showed his confidence that the new structured board after the entry of the Australian fund will resume activity around these lines of action, but predicted that it would be “in the medium term”, also pointing out that the company does not now give much information about its strategy.

“(In this round of results) it has been one of the few companies that has not presented a report as complete as it did before, but has presented only one presentation,” said Peiro. “Logically, until the different forces of power within the company stabilize, the strategy is going to be a bit stopped.”

Lack of optimism prevails with Naturgy

Naturgy has maintained its price in the last month at around 22 euros, but has also seen analysts correct target prices of its shares that recently hovered around 24 euros.

Fernando García, from RBC Capital Markets, advised to underweight the share and changed its valuation to 20 euros. Somewhat less drastic were the movements of Fernando Lafuente, Alantra Equities, and Virginia Romero, of Sabadell Bank, who recommended selling the share at prices of 21.05 and 22.57 euros, respectively.

The actions of Naturgy, in fact, fell as much as 3.1 percent after RBC cut the forecasts on the target price of the stock under the point of view that the premium index on the same “was not justified”.

Ángel Pérez Llamazares, from Rent 4, continues with the target price and the recommendation on the share under review, but assured after the presentation of results that it is foreseeable that the current scenario of volatility and uncertainty “may continue to pressure results in the short term.”

One of the few dissenting voices regarding the company’s prospects came from Barclays, where Jose Ruiz maintained his recommendation to overweight and granted a target price to the energy company share of 24.70 euros.

“We reiterate our overweight rating, our positive stance is based on the favorable impact on Naturgy of high gas prices “explains the analyst in his report.” Our forecast is that this factor will not have an impact before 2023, so we are 4 percent above the consensus of analysts in earnings per share (1, 38 euros vs. 1.33 of the consensus) “.

Australia gains weight

On the operational level, Naturgy announced this week the start of operations of its second wind farm in Australia, located 150 kilometers from the city of Melbourne, and with an installed power of 180 MW.

The Spanish company closed a 15-year power purchase agreement with the state government of Victoria, and invested 185 million euros in the development of the park.

The company assured that the opening of the park is a sign of commitment to Australia, where it already began operating in 2018 with its plant in New south Wales.

Precisely from Australia continued maneuvering IFM, which increased its stake in the company from 10.831 percent to 11.021 percent, according to the documents submitted to National Stock Market Commission.

The Australian investment fund is still far from the initial objective of its bid of controlling between 17 and 22 percent of the company, but it shows signs of not resigning itself in its desire.

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