MUMBAI — Nomura marginally revised down India’s headline retail inflation forecast by 20 basis points to 6.7% in 2022 on the back of lower food and commodity prices. ** Nomura analysts, however, expect inflation to average 6.0% in 2023 as compared to 5.9% in their previous forecast.
** “Some ameliorating factors have materialized in July, such as lower food and commodity prices, but retail prices are likely to remain sticky,” Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in a note.
** Nomura expects India’s economic growth at 7.0% in 2022/23, which is seen easing to 5.5% in the next financial year that starts in April 2023. ** Nomura expects the government to breach fiscal deficit target to 6.8% of GDP, as it does not expect oil taxes and higher gold import duties to fully offset the slippage from the fuel excise duty cuts and higher subsidies.
** It expects the pace of hikes in policy rates to slow down and sees the Reserve Bank of India hiking repo rate by 35 basis points in September and 25 bps in December. (Reporting by Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia;editing by Neha Arora)