Weakened by the accumulation of unresolved problems that are aggravating, with support at its lowest level, Bolsonaro played all his cards in the mobilizations of September 7, the day of the celebration of the independence of Brazil. Two months ago, when he began calling for these mobilizations, he announced that they would be the largest the country had ever known – later he predicted that there would be two million people in São Paulo.
He proposed direct attacks on the Federal Supreme Court and even the Chinese Embassy, with one day that would lead to a backlash. Because Bolsonaro went on to consider that there would be a blow against him by the judiciary and the media, which would release Lula from jail and take him to the presidency of Brazil.
He said that the judiciary would not let him rule, simply because the STF has begun to make decisions against the Bolsonaristas, who systematically threaten the same judges on the internet. Several of them have been jailed. In addition, they have been prevented from collecting resources online and their accounts have been blocked.
With the demonstrations on Tuesday, he intended to regain his strength, retake the initiative and reinforce his attacks on the judiciary. But, except in São Paulo, the number of people was less than he expected. The newspaper Valor econômico, for example, affirms that everything was disappointing for Bolsonaro, that in Brasilia, for example, there was only 5% of the attendance that was expected.
In his speeches, in Brasilia and São Paulo, Bolsonaro concentrated his attacks on the judiciary, affirming that he will pay his price if he does not back down and continue to limit the president’s capacity for action. Bolsonaro reiterated his willingness to disobey new judicial decisions, a very serious position of confrontation between the two powers. He even said that he would convene the Council of the Republic, a body that could discuss an intervention in the provinces or decree a state of siege. But, not having positive responses from the members of that Council, he withdrew the call.
In short, if he wanted to change the situation of attrition he has had throughout this year, he has not succeeded. On the contrary, that attrition has increased. The fear of violent actions, of some kind of invasion of the Capitol in Brazil, has not occurred. The PSDB itself, Cardoso’s party, has called a meeting to discuss the possibility of a impeachment.
At the same time, as is traditional in Brazil, for this same date the Cry of the Excluded was convened throughout the country, this year with the addition of a demonstration of repudiation against it. Rallies were held in 17 capitals and in 47 other cities throughout the country. The opposition will soon resume the dynamics of national mobilizations against it.
After this date, the country again faces its situation of economic crisis, given that the rise in inflation and political instability have ended the possibilities of some type of recovery, Bolsonaro will have to face in an electoral year and with economic stagnation .
There are no signs of recovery from unemployment of more than 14%, to which is added a much larger amount of people living in a precarious situation. The social crisis only tends to get worse.
The pandemic continues, even with the number of cases and deaths falling due to the slow advance of vaccination. Only slightly more than 30% of the population has received the second dose and is fully protected.
In general, the next day has not been a good one for Bolsonaro. He played all his cards, but they were not the biggest demonstrations, there were no attacks by the STF on the Chinese embassy and neither could he give the counterattack that he had mentioned. Not only does it not strengthen, but it does not reverse the wear trend.