Saturday, March 2

Oil: analysts reduce their price forecasts due to the advance of omicron

A survey of 35 economists and analysts estimates that Brent crude would average $ 73.57 a barrel in 2022, about 2% less than the consensus of $ 75.33 in the November survey. It is the first drop in the price forecast for 2022 since the August poll.

Experts, on average, forecast that US crude will trade at $ 71.38 per barrel in 2022, compared to the consensus of $ 73.31 the previous month.

“With lower oil demand growth, persistent rising supply and alleviating the energy crisis, we see the market balance expanding rather than contracting in 2022 and therefore we expect prices to have a downward trend from current levels “, He said Norbert Rücker, analista de Julius Baer.

The prices of benchmark Brent crude, which are currently trading around $ 80 a barrel, are on track for their biggest annual jump since 2009, as demand for fuel rebounded.

However, the new omicron variant is spreading faster, prompting nations to tighten restrictions. If the measures affecting relocation and activity continue, the rebound in oil demand could be reversed.

The global reopening will improve once the worst omicron phase has passed, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, adding that oil prices will likely remain volatile as OPEC + keeps traders nervous with its gradual increases. of production.