Monday, November 29

Oil: IEA predicts the end of the bullish rally

The International Energy Agency He said the bull rally that took oil prices to their highest in seven years is nearing its end.

Tension on global energy markets is beginning to ease as production in the US recovers. USA and other geographies, the agency said.

Without going any further, oil took a breather in recent sessions and prices are showing signs of further moderation.

Demand growth remains robust, but supply is catching up and variations in oil reserves observed in October suggest that “the tide could be turning,” explained the IEA’s monthly report.

Oil could ease consumers

If the IEA’s forecasts turn out to be correct, it would be a relief for consumers, who are suffering in their pockets the impact of uncontrolled inflation.

In Spain, prices are at highs in 1992, precisely because of energy, and in the United States they are at almost three decades.

“The world oil market remains tight from all points of view, but relief from the rebound in prices could be on the horizon,” the IEA said.

Global oil production increased by 1.4 million barrels per day last month, and will rise again in both November and December, as the Gulf of Mexico restores supplies halted by Hurricane Ida.

US shale producers are also taking advantage of the rebound in prices to boost production. Those extra barrels are being added as the OPEC + alliance continues to recover the exports it halted during the pandemic, the agency said.

Brent oil stabilizes

In the heat of this news, Brent oil futures rallied about 0.5 percent on Tuesday to hit $ 82.48 a barrel.

However, last month they reached over $ 86, after the global energy crisis deepened and natural gas prices skyrocketed.

Looking ahead to the next few months, the IEA predicted that the increase in global production levels will reach a rate higher than that of October.

Specifically, it calculated a rate of 1.5 million more barrels per day each month, thanks mainly to the contribution of the USA.

Pressures on the Biden Administration

The IEA forecasts come at a crucial time for the Biden Administration, which has been coming under pressure to release the country’s strategic reserves and ease upward pressure from energy prices on inflation.

The countries of the OPEC + They refuse to fully turn on the supply tap and continue with their strategy of gradual recovery, arguing that global demand is still fragile after the impact of the coronavirus.

However, analysts agree to see signs of oil price stabilization on the horizon. “We could be seeing the first changes of a fundamental transition towards a more relaxed market,” they explained Julius Baer.

In the opinion of these experts, the demand for oil “should only grow gradually in the future”, given the arrival on the market of US shale production.

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