With the return of summer, a parenthesis opens that will only close when the campaign begins for the next general elections, which will most likely be held in the fall of 2023. No data indicates that something substantial could alter that forecast. At the very least, and whatever they say every day, the leaderships of all the parties point to that scenario and from all their current movements it is understood that they only think about winning … or not losing. It is not an exciting outlook for those who expect important changes or transformations. But that’s what there is.
And if you talk with those people who are still interested in the political future, which are not many but not very few, it is concluded that this is the majority perception. The electoral calculation, trying to intuit who can win, is what basically rules in the analyzes of the citizenship, above the specific indignations that certain behaviors -for example, those of the opposition- or such relevant events can produce. like the skyrocketing growth in electricity prices.
There is a long time to go to make minimally solid forecasts in this regard. Which makes the deadlock in which Spanish politics seems to have entered and from which it will take so long to emerge even more absurd. The polls that are being published – several of them, if not most, manipulated when not falsified – are worth little. But those that are not published and those that the experts adhere to, without giving conclusive results indicate something very clear: that the PSOE and the PP are very close to each other, that Citizens disappear from the map, that Vox is still high, always threatening to the PP and that United We Can is down.
From which it follows that a victory for the right in the 2023 elections is a real possibility. Not an inevitable design, but something probable. And that did not happen just ten months ago. The sign of things changed with the victory of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in the Madrid regional elections. With that victory, the PP came out of the morass into which it fell after the departure of Mariano Rajoy from the Government. And Pablo Casado, clearly contested in his leadership by the success and vocation of leadership of the Madrid president, pointed to his line of intolerance without fuss to the left and his tactic of hitting the Government every day, whether he has reasons for it or not. .
The result of this tactic without content, destructive without alternatives, is that the PP is in the front line of the fight, although it does nothing to deserve it and although its leader continues to seem like someone who is not up to the position he holds. The formidable media structure on the right plays a decisive role in that result. They do not waste a day in their task of harassing the government of the left, pulling whatever is necessary, whether it is true or not. And the people who read those newspapers or watch those televisions enthusiastically support that line. A large part of the right-wing voters are obsessed with the idea that the socialists and United We Can must be thrown out of the government, that it is intolerable that they continue there for another day. That sentiment rules over any other, to the despair of those popular leaders, increasingly silent and cowering, who would be in favor of greater moderation.
Faced with this, Pedro Sánchez continues to bet on giving the image of a good boy, that he is doing things well and that he is solving problems. Not baseless, by the way. Because the economy is doing better, because the pandemic seems to be receding at its most terrible extremes, although it is far from controlled and many people are still afraid of it. And because the Catalan crisis has dropped a few points of effervescence – it is to be hoped that the Government does not screw up and things get hot again – and because there are no notable social outbreaks, despite the hardships suffered by many Spaniards.
Better not to talk about Afghanistan. Because there is no political debate about it and because things have been fading as the media has tired of telling human dramas of people who before did not even know that they existed. But if seriousness ever returns to this country, we should talk about Afghanistan. At least about how and why Spain has become involved in this matter without controlling anything, blindly handing over the management of Afghan politics to a United States that has acted in the conflict, with Biden, with Trump, with Obama and with Bush, exclusively based on their own interests, despising those of the so-called allies.
Instead, we must talk about electricity prices. Because it is incomprehensible that the current situation has been reached, even though the same thing is happening in much of the rest of Europe, although less. And because it is not understood that after so many months of announcements and concretions of that crisis, the Government has been unable to avoid it. Are the electricity companies that handcuff the Executive so powerful, or is it that in La Moncloa there are no ideas on how to deal with the issue?
From what is known and seen, the rise in electricity prices will not overthrow the Government or cause an electoral advance. But it can hurt Sánchez. And this does not have enough capital to resist the parenthesis that now opens and that will only close in autumn 2023. To face with greater security than that now has that appointment, the PSOE needs things that it does not have today. From a speech that minimally excites people, that makes them believe that another four years of socialist government things are going to be better than if the right won, with more than good words and the message that the economy is doing well. Because it is not going so well and because whoever earns less than a thousand euros a month for a twelve-hour day does not care. And many of the others, too.