Tuesday, November 28

Pharmamar’s advances with Aplidin leave analysts cold

Pharmamar reported last week that Aplidin is effective against the omicron variant of coronavirus, according to a phase one laboratory study.

The titles soared 17.91 percent with the news, to 64 euros per share, to go back 12.88 percent the next day, to 55.76 euros per share.

The shares once again overstated information on Pharmamar’s bet against the coronavirus.

The market metrics collected by Bloomberg reflect how the titles of the biopharmaceutical move to the beat of this drug initially thought of as antitumor.

“Phase one studies are rarely valued in the investment community”

Rafael Alonso, analyst of the pharma sector at Bankinter

The day after the news trading volume quadrupled the 20-day average with 155,965 shares giving an implied volatility for the month of 36 percent.

On Friday the 14th, two days after the announcement, s70,000 titles were traded in a single block, equivalent to 0.5 percent of the circulating, worth 3.92 million euros at mid-session, according to data from Bloomberg.

Total trading after the move was 124,334 shares, while the 20-day average is 61,590 for mid-session and 184,648 shares at the end of the day.

High trading with no support reports

All these movements of investors and brokers occurred without any investment entity or analysis house issuing any relevant report on what was announced by the company.

In addition, none of the experts in the Bloomberg market consensus made any changes to their advice or target price on Pharmamar.

Only Bankinter dedicated a few lines in its daily report to assess Pharmamar’s announcement and it was made on Wednesday the 12th, the day after the news.

The entity’s expert in charge of the pharmaceutical sector, Rafael Alonso, was clear in his analysis by reminding investors that, although the news is positive, “phase one studies are rarely given value.”

He described the rise of the previous session as “excessive”, but opened a door to hope by assuring that after the strong punishment that the value has suffered since it touched 120 euros last year, the rebound could serve to sustain better levels, something that didn’t happen.

No recommendation changes in months

The rest of the consensus ignored the news and It has been months without making any type of modification in its recommendations and prices leaving an x-ray well known by investors.

50 percent of the experts advise “keeping” the Pharmamar titles, while 37.5 percent urge “buying” shares and 12.5 percent choose to “sell” the positions.

The last changes occurred in summer, after knowing the semi-annual results of the group of Galician origin, and there were numerous cuts in the target price.

The reductions meant that the average target price fell below 100 for the next 12 months, to 91.04 euros.

Thus, Pharmamar’s one-year revaluation potential is 61.4 percent as it is currently trading at over 56 euros, while the consensus expects it to reach 91.04 euros in that period of time.

Countdown to Neptune

Back to Aplidin, the key research is phase three, called Neptune, the pre-marketing application of the drug.

Pharmamar intends to close the study in March this year, according to the Neptuno technical sheet published in the database of the FDA from United States.

The last update of the file was last week and the recruitment of hospitals, 106 in total, continues over 50 percent.

Pharmamar has only completely closed two hospitals, in Mexico Y Colombia and in 5 of the 14 target countries it has not yet begun to recruit hospital centers.

Regarding the volunteers already treated with Aplidin in Neptune, the last known figures are from three months ago and announced by the president of the biopharmaceutical company, Jose Maria Fernandez Sousa.

The president pointed out at an Ibero-American scientific meeting that 36 target patients out of 609 had been treated.

The biotech insists that it is the greatest antiviral against coronavirus, which is effective against any strain of the virus and also has the capacity to act against other coronaviruses or become a broad-spectrum antiviral.