PlanB, known for being the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, expressed that Bitcoin will see another 80% collapse next ‘Crypto Winter’.
To better understand, the term winter crypto (winter crypto in English) covers both the cooling of the markets and their stability.
It can be said that the crypto winter began at the beginning and the middle of 2018, after Bitcoin fell below $ 20,000 and remained in a margin of between $ 6000 and $ 3000. Without more capital entering (due to this lack again capital, it is said that it is winter, because the lack of new capital, caused the price to stagnate, causing all cryptocurrencies to repeat the same pattern).
Bitcoin Will See Another 80% Crash Next ‘Crypto Winter’
As a curious fact, the long-term projections of Bitcoin (BTC) that are made by large analysts such as PlanB are followed by a large number of users on their social networks.
Specifically, in an interview on the FamilyOffice business and investment YouTube channel, PlanB emphasizes some signs that tell you that Bitcoin will eventually enter bearish territory.
«First of all, I am one of the few who actually thinks there will be an upcoming bear market. A fall like the one we’ve seen a couple of times before».
Furthermore, he added: «A lot of people right now are saying that we are done with the four-year cycle. And that we will no longer have these kinds of volatility and these kinds of deep bear markets.».
«I think we will have those bear markets. You can see it in the prices of the options. It is priced at 100% volatility. A couple of months ago, when China abandoned Bitcoin mining, we were down 50% or more. So we almost made it. We had a 50% drop right there. That tells me that 80% correctness when something really big happens is still not out of the question.».
Prices according to S2F and S2FX models
Sure enough, PlanB says the next drop is likely to occur after Bitcoin hits its price targets. Models S2F and S2FX.
«I think we will have to go up quite a bit, at least to make the S2F values $ 100,000 and $ 288,000. But after that, we’ll go down 80% again. I guess that’s part of the deal, and it’s also part of the greed and fear in investors. People don’t changeá ».
It should be noted: “There will be FOMO (fear of missing something). If, for example, we hit the $ 100,000 level within a couple of months, people will enter FOMO and it will rise. Then after that something horrible happens: another ban from China or a ban from India or something. Everyone is scared again and fear sets in. So I guess fear and greed never go away in Bitcoin».
Bitcoin to $ 100,000 in 2022?
The end of 2021 is very close, and the outlook for Bitcoin prices does not generate tranquility for investors. There are those who talk that 2022 may be a crypto winter.
In fact, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell said in an interview with Bloomberg, that we may be about to start a crypto winter.
In addition, Michael van de Poppe, a renowned cryptocurrency analyst, said that for him, history repeats itself, and the same thing will happen as previous years. For the remainder of December and early January, see the market bottoming out.
By the way, although the prediction of $ 100,000 in the end seems objectively difficult to achieve, those made by various experts who suggest that BTC prices will reach and exceed $ 100,000 in the next year seem more reliable.
For example, CoinList CEO Graham Jenkin predicted a price of $ 100,000 for February 2022.
However, PlanB stated: «Bitcoin needs a little miracle for a 100 thousand Christmas. Will I drop the S2F model if this doesn’t happen? No, I actually like to be in the lower bands. In fact, I posted the model in the lower bands in March 2019 with BTC below 4K».
I close with this phrase from Aldous Huxley: «Agnosticism simply means that a person will not say that he knows or believes that for which he has no basis to claim that he believes.».