The PP would win the elections in Castilla y León and would need at least the abstention of Vox in the investiture, according to the latest polls. The convocation of next February 13 will leave a completely different political panorama in the Cortes of Castilla y León. The latest polls commissioned by the media predict a slight rise in the PP, the crash of Ciudadanos and a vertiginous increase in Vox, which until now has a single parliamentarian in the autonomous chamber and which would be decisive. All the polls give the formation ultra sufficient support to obtain its own parliamentary group, and could even reach a dozen parliamentarians.
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In the May 2019 elections, the PSOE was the most voted party with 34.8% of the votes and 35 attorneys. The PP, which lost the election for the first time in three decades, won 29 attorneys (31.05% of the votes). Citizens, 12 parliamentarians, with 14.94% of the votes. The ‘popular’ and Cs then added 41 votes -of the 81 at stake-, taking the majority necessary to control the camera.
The failed motion of censure by Luis Tudanca (PSOE) in March 2021 caused a Cs attorney, María Montero, to go to the Mixed Group, causing the center-right coalition to lose the absolute majority. In the 2019 elections, Podemos, which concurred separately from the United Left, obtained two attorneys; and Vox, the Union of the Leonés People (UPL) and Por Ávila, one each.
The new elections will change the composition of the autonomous chamber if the predictions of the pollsters are fulfilled. NIUS newspaper, the newspaper of Mediaset, published this Thursday a survey of GAD3, the most recent so far, which predicts the victory of the PP and a rising Vox. According to the digital, the PP would obtain between 37 and 39 seats, 39.2% of the votes. The Socialists would leave five attorneys with respect to the previous elections and with 30 attorneys they would cease to be the most voted force. Ciudadanos, the most affected, would lose up to 11 seats, and would only keep the attorney for Valladolid, a position that Francisco Igea held in 2019.
The GAD3 poll predicts the disappearance of Podemos, with less than 5% of the votes. The Union of the Leonés People, would obtain 2.8% of the votes and between one and two attorneys, one more than now. For Ávila, the split of the PP that the PP blames without proof of having agreed to amendments with Citizens behind their backs, would not get representation. The Nius poll is one of those published to date, the only one that includes ‘Soria ¡Ya!’, The Empty Spain candidacy that follows in the wake of Teruel Existe with the leap into politics. The Sorianos would take control of a procurator of the five at stake in their province. It is still not clear how many candidacies from Empty Spain will take the plunge. In Zamora, Segovia, León and Palencia they are studying to perform. In Burgos, Empty Spain has already announced that it is being presented, but it does not appear in Nius’s survey.
La Razón published a poll by NC REPORT Less than a month ago he predicted between 38 and 40 seats for the PP, on the verge of an absolute majority, and the collapse of Ciudadanos, which would lose ten seats until it was left with a single member of parliament. The second party most affected by the electoral advance would be the PSOE, which would go from 35 to 30 or 31, while Vox would be the great beneficiary according to NC REPORT and would achieve between 6 and 7 seats, becoming the key to govern. Podemos, which this time plans to present itself as United We Can with the United Left, would remain with two attorneys. For Ávila and Ciudadanos they would obtain 1 deputy each.
The ICAL news agency published in October an electoral poll prepared by Metroscopia that predicted the victory of the PP with a simple majority (between 34 and 37 attorneys). As the La Razón poll also predicted, Ciudadanos would collapse and have a single member of parliament. The PSOE would rank as the second force in the Chamber with between 27 and 29.
This survey also certifies the rise of Vox, which would obtain between 10 and 11 parliamentarians. United We can stay with its two attorneys, although it could reach the third; UPL would add 2 seats and Por Ávila would have to fight to keep its only attorney.
However, each party has its own polls that offer better perspectives than those published by the media. There are also other factors that could affect the outcome of the elections, such as the fact that the names of the Ciudadanos, Vox, or Unidas Podemos candidates have not been announced. Nor is it known if the Empty Spain will present a candidacy in all or only in some of the nine provinces of Castilla y León.