Thursday, July 29

PP and Vox would reach an absolute majority in Andalusia, according to the Andalusian CIS


The PP would be the winner of the elections in Andalusia if they were held today. This is how the last one reflects Andalusian Public Opinion Barometer carried out by the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation (Centra) that gives the popular 14.6 points of difference over the PSOE, which would be the second most voted force.

The PP is looking for a dance partner to finish the legislature in Andalusia

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The one known as the Andalusian CIS, published this Monday, grants a new promotion to the party of the president of the Board, Juan Manuel Moreno. The PP would go from the 26 current deputies to a range of 48 to 52 seats. This supposes a 37.9% of votes with respect to the 23.3% that would agglutinate the Socialists.

The survey, which includes 3,600 interviews carried out between June 15 and 24, gives Moreno a free pass to revalidate his mandate and with two alternatives to choose his Government partner, Vox or Citizens, if he so decides.

The orange formation continues in decomposition and of the 21 current deputies it would go on to obtain between 7 and 8. It would only obtain 8.7% of the votes and its political repercussion would decrease until it became the fifth force in the Andalusian Parliament. It is currently the third. The polls are still ominous for Citizens who do not know how to capitalize on their position in the Andalusian Executive.

The position would be held by Vox, which gets 11.4% of the support of the electorate. It would become the third force in the Andalusian Parliament, but with a result without fanfare since it would maintain the number of deputies (12) and in the best forecasts it would add one more seat.

Thus, PP and Vox would add an absolute majority, set at 55 seats, with 65 deputies in the best of scenarios. Another variable is an absolute majority based on the current bipartisan PP and Ciudadanos that would add those 55 deputies in the worst case and 60 in the most positive context. In a parliamentary chamber divided into blocks, the right, counting on the failure of Ciudadanos, would obtain 58% of the votes, prevailing over the left, which would reach 36.1%.

The “Swords effect” is barely noticeable in the latest CENTRA barometer. The survey gives the PSOE 23.3% of the vote, which translates into a range of 28 to 29 seats. In the last elections they obtained 33. The results of the Socialists in this latest poll are almost traced to those of April where they obtained a support of 23% and a projection of seats between 26 and 29. Everything remains the same for the Socialists who follow far from going back to San Telmo.

The situation for the alternative left is not very exciting either and whose scenario worsens after fragmentation. United Podemos for Andalusia (the union of Podemos and Izquierda Unida) would obtain between 9 and 10 deputies, with a support of 9.2% of the vote. For its part, Adelante Andalucía, the new formation of Teresa Rodríguez, would get 3.6% of the votes, which translates into a parliamentary representation of 2 seats. Between the two they would add, in the best of cases, 12 deputies compared to the 17 they achieved at the confluence with which they presented themselves in the autonomous elections of December 2018.

Juan Manuel Moreno is in a privileged position. With the polls giving the PP as a favorite “it would be convenient” an electoral advance, as expressed by its parliamentary spokesman José Antonio Nieto. However, the Andalusian Executive has a marked roadmap that passes through the approval of several “key” projects such as the Law to Promote the Sustainability of the Territory of Andalusia (LISTA) that reaches Parliament in the next plenary session, the Law of Ceded Taxes and the Circular Economy law that will be debated in the regional Chamber after the summer recess in August. On this occasion, a question about the suitability of a preview of the regional elections has not been included.

Andalusian leaders qualification

The survey also includes the assessment of political leaders. The president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Manuel Moreno, gets a score of 6.93, being the favorite to continue leading the Government with the support of 45.7% of those surveyed.

It has no rival. To the new socialist candidate for the Junta, Juan Espadas, with an assessment of 5.39 points, only 9.9% of those surveyed prefer him as president of the Andalusian Government. The second place on this list is for the vice president of the Board and autonomous coordinator of Citizens, Juan Marín, who obtains a mark of 5.64 points. But only 2.4% of those surveyed see him at the head of the Executive.

They are followed by the general secretary of Podemos Andalucía, Martina Velarde (5.15 points), last in preference to be the president of the Board with 0.2% of the support, and the spokesperson for Adelante Andalucía, Teresa Rodríguez (5, 09 points), which 2.5% of those surveyed see in San Telmo. The only leader who suspends is the parliamentary spokesman for Vox in Andalusia, Manuel Gavira, with a note of 4.95, and with only 0.6% of the support to be the next president of the Junta de Andalucía.



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