Monday, October 18

Prices mostly rise on cooler temperatures, supply concerns

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British and Dutch wholesale gas prices mostly rose early on Monday, driven by cooler temperatures and supply concerns.

* The British within-day gas contract was up 20.25 pence at 215.00 p/therm by 0923 GMT.

* The British day-ahead contract was up 13.00 p at 208.00 p/therm.

* The November gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, was up 7.50 euros at 98.50 euros/MWh.

* Traders said prices rose as concerns over liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries and Russian flows to Europe pushed prices higher following a correction on Friday.

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* Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the availability of gas flows from Russia was likely to continue to influence the direction for European gas prices this winter.

* “Gazprom’s decision not to book for October the full capacity available at one of the main pipelines that delivers gas to Germany poses an increased tightening risk to NW European gas balances and, hence, further upside risk to TTF prices this winter,” the Goldman analysts said.

* Flows to Europe from Russia through the Mallnow pipeline were at 200 gigawatt hours/day (GWh/d) early on Monday, analysts at Refinitiv said, down 540GWh/d on the previous day.

* Flows from Britain’s LNG terminals were forecast at 7 million cubic metersmcm), down from 10 mcm, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

* Demand is also expected to increase across Europe as temperatures drop.

* “We expect heating demand start adjusting higher as we entered winter season,” analysts at Refinitiv said in a daily research note.

* The British November gas price was up 10.75 p/therm at 251.75 p/therm.

* The benchmark Dec-21 EU carbon contract was up 2.01 euro at 64.05 euros per tonne.

* The benchmark Dec-21 British carbon contract was down 0.85 pounds at 73.00 pounds per tonne. (Reporting By Susanna Twidale; editing by Barbara Lewis)

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