Friday, December 3

Record blue dollar: economists analyze the rise and give their forecasts


The director of the Center for Studies for the New Economy (CENE), Victor Cup, stated that “there is no economic basis” that explains the increase in the price of the dollar.

Beker pointed out that this is a “political price” due to electoral uncertainty and that a 180-degree change in expectations is required for the currency to be lowered. In this link the complete interview.

For its part, Laura Head, an economist at the Bicentennial Group, affirmed that there is no explanation from economic rationality that explains the rise in the dollar at the $ 200 levels. He points out that it is due to a bid that in his opinion the businessmen are maintaining against the government.

In this link the complete interview with Laura Testa.

Christian Buteler, financial analyst, in dialogue with Ámbito, I think that “In the last two weeks he has been jumping quite quickly and he has even been running behind the other dollars”However, he assured that “this is not an issue that increased demand a lot. The offer disappeared a bit and it seems to me that they are adjusting the prices of the blue to what the CCL and the free MEP are, which are above $ 200“.

Regarding what could happen in the short term, Buteler said that “it is possible to take a break this week. The trend is upward and will continue with the same old saws. Take a jump, go back a couple of pesos, lateralize a few weeks and go back up. As long as they fail to control inflation and lower the emission, obviously the blue trend is up. “” We are in Argentina and if there is one thing that is safe, it is to bet on the dollar. Two weeks ago it was $ 185, $ 15 can be accommodated upstairs but $ 25 I don’t see it, it’s going to rest a bit“, Hill.

For its part, the economist Sergio Chouza, in dialogue with ÁmbitoHe said that “there are areas that are symbolically more relevant” but he wondered “What changed from yesterday to today? Nothing changed. You adjust the evolution of the informal dollar for inflation throughout this year, if you take it as an average or end-to-end, you are at 8 and 10, 11 points with the dollar below the informal dollar. With which there is no evolution that has nothing to do with the nominal evolution of the economy. There is inflation with which the nominal variables increase, but It does not speak of a situation of overflow or macroeconomic complexity or anything outside the country’s own balances“.

He also clarified that “The political background of the context cannot be ignored. Elections are coming in a few days and that is decisive in setting the price of the dollar.” but he expressed that “what pushes upwards more than retailers dollarizing their little puches of surplus salary savings can be guided by the weight of demand from companies that has part of its turnover in black not registered and can generate a more significant dollarizing pressure “. “Over $ 200, a monthly advance between $ 5 and $ 7 is in tune with inflation. 3% of the $ 200 gives you $ 6 with an inflation in the 3% zone, it should not seem abnormal to us”Chouza said.

For its part, Gabriel Caamaño, Chief Economist of Ledesma, he assured that “the blue dollar is catching up, but running behind, to free financial dollars. The CCL and the MEP with Global Bonds, ADRs and CEDEARs that have made a few rounds that have already exceeded $ 200 and are now around $ 214 for the ppt segment and immediate cash. It will not necessarily reach them, because the CCL and MEP with bonds, segmented and intervened by the BCRA, act as a counterweight“.

“Ultimately the prices of all these types of parallel changes are rising as a result of the combination of liquidity injected in the last just under 6 months (1,200,000 net monetary financing from the BCRA to the Treasury) and the lack of anchoring of expectations or definition of the post-electoral horizon, which makes agents seek coverage and are willing to pay these prices for it“Caamano closed.

Finally, Lorena Giorgio, Chief Economist at Equilibra, opined that “the informal dollar is reacting and arbitrating the rises in financial prices not intervened, which already widely exceed 200 pesos per dollar, and is also responding to higher portfolio dollarization on the eve of the general election. It is expected that, after an initial lag, there is a convergence between free prices and the informal dollar, below the 220 of the SENEBI dollar, but probably somewhat above the current price of informal “.

“The dollar is at historically expensive levels, and is discounting the great uncertainty surrounding the path the economy will take from the second half of November. For this reason, with the result of the elections on the table and to the extent that the cards of the second half of the mandate are shown, we should see less pressure in the exchange market, either by pro-market measures or by the bad “closed Giorgio.



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