Sunday, January 29

Record blue dollar: three key questions


The blue had started the week down $2 to $206, but since Tuesday it exhibited a strong bullish rebound.

The parallel had already shown a significant acceleration in the second half of December, although in the accumulated figure for 2021 it had an increase of 25.3% ($42), half compared to inflation that stood at 50.9% according to the INDEC. However, it is worth remembering that in 2020 the currency had shown a sharp jump of 111%.

Blue dollar: expensive or cheap?

Ámbito consulted financial analysts about How much should the parallel exchange rate be worth? The responses were mixed.

The last closing balance of the Central Bank gives a balance dollar of $220. In that sense, a blue below that figure is a gift”, the market analyst, Salvador Di Stéfano, told Ámbito, who emphasized the high weight of the monetary issue in financing the fiscal deficit, which could imply a delay in exchange rates if inflation accelerates.

financial analyst, Christian Buteler, commented to this medium that “it is always difficult to put a price on the unofficial exchange rate, whether blue or stock market, because being free one could infer that the value is the logical one of the market for this moment“.

Considering the current conditions, the financial analyst emphasized that “it is a quite logical price, in a range between 200 and 210 pesos. But this does not mean that this is a value that will be maintained over time, it will depend on the evolution of different variables (money demand and economic situation)”.

For his part, the economist Sergio Chouza, assured that “I could not say it in a decisive way since it is a variable influenced by what happens with the financial markets and in turn by the news of what happens at the macro level in the most urgent thing that is the evolution on the signals with the agreement with the Monetary Fund”.

The president of the consultancy Wise, Walter Morales projected that in the event of an agreement with the IMF the US currency could grow between $45 and $50. “An agreement with the IMF has to begin to put a ceiling on blue around $255 or $260,” he said., with which in his opinion “every purchase that begins to be made now in these securities is probably that we will not have an attractive performance.”

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Why did the blue dollar rise

“The last balance sheet closing of the Central Bank gives a balance dollar of $220. In that sense, a blue below that figure is given away,” market analyst Salvador Di Stéfano told this medium., who emphasized the high weight of the monetary issue in financing the fiscal deficit.

For his part, the economist Gustavo Ber maintained that investors “continue to lean towards hedging in a climate of both internal and external uncertainty, where the rise in rates in the US becomes a serious challenge for emerging markets.”

“The lack of definitions about the agreement with the IMF raises doubts and makes people cover themselves with greenbacks,” another market source told Ámbito.

With the rise of this wheel, the blue dollar closed its spread with the CCL, which fell this Tuesday and ended at $211.53 and remained the most expensive in the market. All this occurs at the same time that the Central Bank slightly accelerates the rate of daily adjustment of the official dollar, to place the devaluation rate at levels close to those of inflation.

“In the background, the expectation continues for an agreement with the IMF under a climate where uncertainty still prevails, which is even accentuated after the recent high monetary issue,” Ber said.

In December, the blue rose 3.2% ($6.50) and the official rose just 1.8%, against an estimated inflation of 3.4% according to the consultants and financial entities that participated in the latest Survey of Market Expectations ( REM).

So far in January, the wholesaler accumulates a rise of 0.8%, which if repeated from now to the end of the month would result in a monthly increase of more than 2%. Meanwhile, the blue, with more fluctuations, shows an increase of 0.5% in the month, although from a much higher price.

Specialists warn that the performance of the parallel in 2022 will depend on several factors, including negotiations with the IMF and the strategy regarding the management of the official exchange rate.

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How much should the blue dollar be worth?

Buteler commented to this medium that “it is always difficult to put a price on the unofficial exchange rate, whether it is blue or stock exchange, because being free one could infer that the value that is is the logical one of the market for this moment“.

For this reason, the price of $208 seems to me to respond to market dynamics, because it is agreed without government intervention, at least these days.“, he raised.

For Buteler, “the price is justified, moreover, because at this time the demand remains active for payments of expenses for December, vacations and others.”

Considering the current conditions, the financial analyst emphasized that “It is a quite logical price, in a range between 200 and 210 pesos. But this does not mean that this is a value that will be maintained over time, it will depend on the evolution of different variables (money demand and economic situation)”.

Buteler indicated that “what cannot be claimed is that, with 50% inflation, the free exchange rate remains unchanged, since it has to move in tune.”

On the contrary, the market analyst, Salvador Di Stéfano, said that “the last closing balance of the Central Bank gives an equilibrium dollar of $220. In that sense, a blue dollar below that figure is given away“.

The specialist emphasized, in this sense, the high weight of the monetary issue in financing the fiscal deficit, which could imply a delay in exchange rates if inflation accelerates.

For his part, the economist Sergio Chouza, assured that “I could not say it in a decisive way since it is a variable influenced by what happens with the financial markets and in turn by the news of what happens at the macro level in the most urgent thing that is the evolution on the signals with the agreement with the Monetary Fund”.

In more structural terms, he assured that the dollar “still at high levels” in all segments. “What I believe is that since Argentina has inflation nominality can be moved, and quietly every month new nominal maximums can be reached That does not mean that an acceleration is taking place,” he added.

Regarding the rise dynamics, Chouza assured that it will be similar to that of 2021, “where the increases are below average inflation with the exception of the official segment make the correction look a little more like inflation.

I see no rationale for a short acceleration on the blue unless there is a very negative news about what is going to happen in March with the expiration and the balance of the trade. The movements are going to go below inflation,” he said.

Who also gave his opinion was the president of the consulting firm Wise, Walter Morales. “The rise in blue is purely and exclusively due to the uncertainty generated around the agreement with the IMF”, considered and explained that “it depends on the type of agreement”, that is, if it is going to make Argentina sustainable or not”.

For Morales, the sustainability of the Argentine economy “Not only do we have to think about it based on the growth of the economy, but also to avoid any problem of default from 2025, when we have strong maturities”. From his point of view, these unknowns “naturally make savers want to hedge with the dollar.”

As for the value that the US currency should reach if the negotiations come to fruition, he said that it could grow between $45 and $50. “An agreement with the IMF has to begin to put a ceiling on blue around $255 or $260,” he said., with which in his opinion “every purchase that begins to be made now in these securities is probably that we will not have an attractive performance.”



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