Sunday, September 19

Red, green, red

Red, green, red, the color of a possible coalition that could govern after the German elections on September 26, is causing a huge debate in the country and may have consequences beyond German territory.

The loneliness of Sánchez’s red, red government in the European ecosystem can be accompanied by the new color palette of red, green, red, depending on what the polls currently say. The SPD, the socialist party, will obtain 25% of the votes, while the CDU, the current ruler with Merkel, has just over 20%. In that situation, Los Verdes with 17%, and Die linke with 6%, to the left of the SPD, they may be the parties that support a possible left-wing coalition.

The fear of this possible coalition has made Angela Merkel, current Chancellor who does not appear in these elections, has had to come out publicly in defense of the Christian Democratic candidate and against that possibility, with a lapidary phrase: “It does not matter who governs this country”.

Many are disturbed by the possibility that Die linke become part of a coalition government with your orthodox left proposals. It is almost a repetition of that other lapidary phrase by Pedro Sánchez, “I would not sleep peacefully at night”, when the possibility of a first coalition government with Podemos was raised.

And it is that this left, on the left, is contrary to the existence of NATO and asks for things like a minimum salary of 13 euros per hour, a limit on rent and free commuter transport.

For their part, Los Verdes, Die Grünen, that were born in 1980 as a political group, introduced political environmentalism into German society, and are responsible, to a large extent, for that environmental awareness that is substantial in the country. In these next elections the German Greens are presented with a real possibility of placing their candidate Annalena Baerbock, in a privileged position vis-à-vis the government of the federal republic.

The key, in any case, will be the current leader of the SPD, Olaf Scholz. And there we find the Realpolitik, the term coined by Otto von Bismarck, which is neither more nor less than introducing pragmatism into politics, sometimes far removed from the ideological proposals of each party.

Scholz, the Social Democratic SPD candidate for Chancellor, is currently Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister with Angela Merkel, in the grand coalition government between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. As Minister of Finance he maintains orthodox economic policies and very much in line with the more moderate spirit of social democracy, an essential element of the grand coalition.

So yes, Scholz would surely not sleep at night if he had to associate with Die linke bound by electoral results. Surely you have discussed the matter with Pedro Sánchez. What buddy, how are you doing at night? Do you sleep without pills? So red, green, red, however much the polls draw it, has a complicated journey. We will have to wait, as in any electoral appointment, for the numbers, the number of votes, which are what mark the end of the trip.

Because another possible coalition is the so-called traffic light, red, green, yellow, in this case with the SPD, the Greens and the yellows of the liberal FPD, whose current vote expectations, according to polls, is 13%, a little more than the far right of the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) which remains at 12%.

In Germany, the civilized right that is represented by the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria, faces the post-Merkel era, and that is a big problem because the Chancellor had a big electoral pull and the current candidate, the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, does not have that pull. That is why he focuses on clear messages that sink into public opinion: “Never again expropriations, never again communism”, and asks the Social Democratic candidate to clearly define whether or not he will count on the left of Die linke. “Will a minister of Die linke Scholz if he reaches the chancery? Why can’t you answer that question with a yes or no? ”

The Christian Democrat attacks where he sees the contradiction that can help him, communism, a possible ally of socialism. In this work, the Christian Democratic candidate Laschet has the invaluable help, at his side, of a wise adviser who can be decisive both in the campaign and in the subsequent negotiations to form a government, despite what the polls say today. His name is Nathanael Liminski, he is his chief of staff in the Rhineland government. Close to ultra-conservative Catholic circles, and in favor of eliminating sexual relations before marriage, Liminski is a crack in political strategy and many see in him the key so that the Christian Democratic candidate can stay in power despite the polls.

But the essential question of the elections is going to be the age of the electoral body. Years ago, in the mid-1970s, the Christian Democrats of the CDU and CSU and the Social Democrats of the SPD obtained 90% of all votes. Today the situation is different and the vote will be more distributed. Young people vote for options like Los Verdes, but older voters, who form the hard core of that electoral body, vote for the classic options, CDU or SPD. As Nico Siegel, manager of Infratest Dimap, says, “The older voters often value experience, competence and give a lot of importance above all to the charismatic and calm profile, and then they put the cross and, until now, the candidate of the SPD Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is the one who comes out winning. ”



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