The The market sees an acceleration in the rate of devaluation as inevitable after the elections, on the eve of the end of the year. This is how the consulting firm Delphos Investment considers it, which points out as triggers the level of net reserves that is “at the limit” and the impossibility of reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The forecast considers for its analysis the scenario of the future dollar and that of bonds and, according to the prices that are operated in the Rofex futures market, for December the rise in the nominal exchange rate would be 5.2%, while for January would increase to 6.2%.
All this happens in a wheel in which the blue dollar rose $ 1.50 to $ 206.50. This led to the gap with the official above 106.1%.
The Government repeatedly denied that there will be a jump in the price of the official dollar after the elections. In that sense, the private companies assure that what happens with the “green ticket” as of next Monday depends exclusively on what the Government does to anchor expectations.
From the consulting firm PPI, “lhe situation of the Central Bank is delicate. Our estimate of net liquid reserves – discounting gold – is about $ 750 million. If the agency continues with the current rate of sales to intervene in the MEP dollar market, the account shows that they are enough for a few more days. And the point is that the next payments to the IMF can be made with the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) granted by the body itself, but at the beginning of next year more dollars are needed. March is the limit. “
“In this framework, the government could somehow generate – if it does not want to tighten the stocks any more – some incentive for the agricultural sector, since the wheat harvest enters in mid-December and the BCRA could buy some foreign currency. fact of the matter is that the government already needs an exchange plan with a fiscal scheme behind. We need the IMF by our side so that everything is coordinated. “
The The wholesale dollar rose two cents to $ 100.17, under the strict regulation of the BCRA, in a round in which it operated with a buying tendency, as in the last days and with intense official activity. Prices exhibited somewhat more fluctuation, but with their movements limited by the Central Bank regulation.
The holiday in the United States limited the possibility of operating with settlement on the date abroad, limiting the largest number of transactions to those formalized to be settled as of tomorrow and those that could be made against the dollar accounts that local financial entities they have open at the Central Bank. The lows of the date were noted at the start at $ 100.16 and the highs reached $ 100.20.
Private market sources indicated that the monetary authority ended the day with net sales of approximately US $ 40 million.
The expectations and uncertainty derived from the electoral process next Sunday maintain the stimulus to anticipate obligations with the exterior as much as possible, accentuating the demand for foreign currency in a scenario of lower income from exporters and forcing the Central Bank to carry out intense activity to supply the market.
The Futures markets also reflected this circumstance with a significant volume of operations, similar in amount to those registered at each end of the month, when it is necessary to close positions.
The dollar today advances nine cents this Thursday at $ 105.76 -without taxes-, according to the average of the main banks of the financial system, in a context of marked upward pressure for versions of the “unregulated” currency. In turn, the retail value of the US dollar it remains at $ 105.25 in Banco Nación.
The savings dollar or solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and 35% on Profit account- amounts to 14 cents to $ 174.50.