The production of Repsol It fell 11.7 percent in 2021, to 572,000 barrels per day, but the key figure in its trading report is the refining margin that rose 9.1 percent to $2.4 per barrel. barrel.
The margin posted in the last quarter of the year stands out in particular, up to 4.4 dollars per barrel, 37.5 percent more than in the previous quarter and 340 percent higher than the same period in 2020.
The figures have dazzled and surprised both investors, who this Wednesday are launching to buy shares of the oil company, as well as analysts, who improve their prospects for results after learning of the report.
The analysis department Sabadell Bank points out that thanks to these figures they expect “good results in the fourth quarter of 2021”, which Repsol will present on February 17 along with the accumulated figures for 2021.
The refining margin is also higher than the 2 dollars on average that the company itself calculated for last year and that the Sabadell experts explain why the “gasoline and middle distillate differentials”, derived from the increase in oil prices.
Repsol rests from setbacks
The new figures published cause the accumulated benefit for 2021 is again close to the gains seen in 2018 after two years of difficulties.
Repsol will close 2021 with a profit of 2,291.3 million euros, according to market consensus estimates, while in 2018 it achieved profits of 2,341 million.
2019 was a year plagued by accounting provisions and assets pfor the company chaired by Antonio Brufau and closed the year with losses of 3,816 million euros due to provisions in the U.S Y Canada after the purchase of Talisman.
2020, the year of the pandemic, meant new losses for Repsol, of 3,289 million euros, due to provisions against Covid-19 and the imposing drop in the price of oil where the barrel of oil West Texas, the reference in the United States, fell to -40 dollars.
Repsol has left its oil price forecast for the year as a whole almost unchanged with the rate Brent, the highest international reference, at 70.9 dollars, and in West Texas the price remains at 68.1 dollars.
The ebtida also improves
The better business performance coupled with the rise in crude oil also it will be reflected in an ebitda in 2021 of 6,634.3 million euros, above the 5,400 million registered in 2018. In addition, for this year the experts estimate that it will exceed 7,000 million.
Another point that the market is highlighting is Repsol’s ability to generate free cash flow and how it is reverting it to shareholders.
“We remain positive with the stock due to its attractive dividend yield (5.27 percent)”, point out the experts at Banco Sabadell.
The company is also immersed in a share buyback program and analysts at Deutsche Bank calculate a return measured by dividend, including repurchases, of 7.8 percent, above the 4.8 percent industry average.
If the buyback program is taken into account, it is one of the most attractive dividend yields on the IBEX 35 and analysts at Bankinter consider it to be sustainable over time thanks to the increase in oil and debt control.
Sale of the renewables division
2022 will be the year for Repsol to sell its renewable energy division, which was paralyzed last year due to the little appetite that investors were showing for renewable energy companies with frustrated IPOs, such as the cases of Opdenergy Y Capital Energy.
The objective is the sale of between 10 percent and 25 percent of a company that would be valued at over 5,000 million euros.
For Bankinter analysts, the operation has “strategic sense and is one of the main catalysts for short-term value”.
From the entity they believe that the movement allows Repsol “to add value to its renewable assets and continue growing without the need to make additional capital contributions.”
In addition, they emphasize “maintains its goal of diversifying its business and making it less dependent on the price of oil”.