Thursday, December 9

Repsol, Banco Sabadell, Banco Santander … and inflation!


XTB’s sales manager, Joaquín Robles, participates in the episode corresponding to the October 28 session of the market closing podcast for finanzas.com. Doubts about the reaction of investors to Repsol’s good results are raised on the study table, the options for new corporate operations at Banco Sabadell are analyzed and the figures for Banco Santander are calmly reviewed.

In conversation with the director of publications of Grupo ED – editor of finanzas.com-, Ismael García Villarejo, Robles expects oil prices to exceed $ 90 by the end of the year. It will remain at that level for about five months to correct, then, to the area of ​​$ 70.

This quote will come together to put pressure on prices along with other raw materials, such as gas. And what worries the invited analyst is that “Europe is not growing at the same rate as other regions.”

Summary of the transcript

The IBEX outperformed again the 9,000 points. Are they a day flower?

“This season of results, especially at the IBEX 35, the idea that most of the companies are beginning to recover is beginning to consolidate. Obviously, if we faced 2020 that was very simple, but we are already beginning to compare favorably with 2019. This should lay a basis for a final rebound to levels close to the annual highs. That is, about 9,300 points. Of course, it will cost it as it continues to weigh against the IBEX its composition and, specifically, the behavior of the energy sector ”.

Explains the schizophrenia of investors after Repsol’s results

“You have to be very careful with your daily movements. True: we had very good results, but the stock, in the middle of the session, fell 4 percent. It’s the same thing that happened to Banco Santander yesterday (on October 27). Many investors have been able to discount these good results and before the confirmation they undo positions. Apart from this, the markets are waiting to see if Repsol will be able to fully recover after the heavy losses in 2020 and remain attentive to the oil market. But Repsol’s latest results are good and have served to advance the dividend ”.

Does $ 83 oil have more travel?

“I think so. Oil still has a long way to go and I would not be surprised to see a barrel above $ 90 before the end of the year. That level could be maintained for four or five months before correcting to between $ 70 and $ 80. The demand will remain constant and, on the other hand, those are the prices prior to the pandemic ”.

Good news, finally, from the UK for Banco Sabadell

“The good news from TSB is important. It is a subsidiary that generated problems for you from the purchase. But at Banco Sabadell it seems that everything that previously worried is now beneficial: exposure to SMEs, workforce … so we have it increasing more than 100 percent in the year and with correct benefits for this period. We continue to think that it will seek some kind of synergy with other entities or even a union with another bank ”.

Will Sabadell try a merger again?

“We believe that Sabadell shareholders are trying to consolidate this good moment for the bank, raise their valuation and try to go to a union with a greater negotiating capacity than it had a year ago.”

What grade would you give to Banco Santander’s results?

“Maybe a six or a seven. They have been good results, but still very far from what we are seeing in the United States, which is where the banking sector is giving an image of much greater strength ”.

Values ​​the contribution of the US to Brazil in the contribution of profit to Santander

“It is difficult to assess it. But I think it could be bad because Santander had much higher expectations in Brazil. In fact, we saw how the central bank wanted to raise interest rates by 150 basis points because inflation is once again above 10 percent. In addition, there was a curious situation: several reports negatively valued this rate hike in Brazil because the widening of interest margins could lead to lower credit. This and the instability of the country is already weighing on Santander along with the certainty that there will be no major reforms one year before the next elections. All this can go against Banco Santander ”.

Is Lagarde correct in his immovable position on the transitory nature of inflation? What he said this Thursday is that there are factors that suggest that this inflation will be transitory: first the base effect, the bottlenecks … But in the meantime, we see that 5.5 percent in Spain and that 4.6 percent in Germany (the largest data in decades). There is fear. The way of calculating inflation is even criticized since, if you ask on the street, we will see that the price increase is much higher. Additionally, what we record is that Europe is not growing at the same rate as other powers ”.



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