Monday, December 6

S&P Merval fell to caution due to election result; Country Risk scored fifth weekly increase

The greatest decreases in the leading panel were for Loma Negra (-4.6%), Transener (-3.9%) and Galicia (-2.6%). Among the few increases of the day, the shares of YPF (+ 1%); from Edenor (+ 1%); and Aluar (+ 0.9%).

The volume traded in shares remained above $ 2 billion for the sixth consecutive day: reached $ 2,427 million, 32% of the total traded in equities (cedears registered a record volume of more than $ 5,000 million).

Throughout the week, BYMA’s leading panel posted a 2.2% rise, measured in pesos. The main weekly appreciations were shown by Cablevisión papers (11.4%); Comercial del Plata (+ 10.7%); and Aluar (+ 6.5%).

For its part, ADRs closed with the majority of losses, led by Loma Negra (-6.7%); Take off (-5%); and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-4.9%). While the most salient rises of the day were recorded by Edenor (+ 3.5%); Free Market (+ 1.3%); and Supervielle (+ 0.7%).

“This Sunday the mid-term general elections will be held and the market speculates the different possible results”, assured Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) and added: “The results of the Province of Buenos Aires, the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires and the national aggregate will be a mandatory stop of all political analysis, especially, to infer that it could happen in the face of the ( presidential ballot of) 2023 “.

“After the elections will come the reactions and political strategies of the ruling party, and of the opposition, which are key to assessing the viability of facing an area of ​​consensus that allows progress towards an agreement with the IMF and a convergence in economic imbalances”, said the economist Gustavo Ber.

And he added: “Investors expect news in the short term since they recognize that the current dynamics is not sustainable, and that is why urgent definitions are required to prevent a new crisis in time.”

Bonds and Country Risk

In fixed income, the main bonds in dollars closed mixed, with increases led by Bonar 2041 (+ 1.8%); and drops led by Global 2041 (-1.4%). So during the week accumulated an average fall of 1.4%.

Faced with this, the Argentine Country Risk fell 0.3% to 1,748 points, from its highest level since the debt swap with private companies, although it was on its way to scoring its fifth consecutive weekly rise (+ 1.3%).

In turn, bonds in pesos that adjust for CER rose to 1.3% (PR13) after it was known that retail prices rose 3.5% in October (more than expected by the market), with which they accumulated a 41.8% increase so far this year and a year-on-year increase of 52.1%.

In the weekly accumulated, the rise was 0.4% for the shorter bonds, while the rest of the curve suffered an average fall of 0.1%.

Finally, the sovereign dollar linked bonds returned to operating policyholders, with increases of 0.6% average for the four issues, with a weekly variation was positive of 1% with the exception of TV22 that registered a decrease of 0.2%.

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