It should be noted that on November 12 the mid-term elections were held within the framework of an expectation of greater devaluation after the elections, something finally did not happen as the Government decided to avoid adding fuel to the fire of high inflationary levels.
In the accumulated of 2021, the official exchange rate rose just 22%, against an annual inflation that is estimated around 50%. In this way, the value of the currency in real terms is close to 20% below its historical average since the exit from convertility, despite the fact that there were periods of greater exchange rate lag than at present.
In this context, a large part of the market warns that a greater correction of the dollar may contribute to generate greater calm in the exchange rate gap (currently around 100%), which discourages the postponement of exports and the advancement of imports.
The BCRA adjusted slightly up the variation of the exchange rate in December, which went from advancing to 1% per month to being closer to 2%. Even so, inflation in December would widely exceed that percentage.
On this day the monetary authority published a document with its “objectives and plans for 2022”. Regarding its exchange rate policy, the entity led by Miguel Ángel Pesce pointed out that one of the goals is “to preserve the levels of external competitiveness, gradually readjusting the crawling peg rate within the framework of the current floating regime managed at the rate of inflation. “.
It is worth remembering that, based on BCRA restrictions, the purchase of savings dollars exhibited a sharp decline between August 2020 and May 2021. In that period, the number of buyers went from 4 million to almost 300,000, at the same time that the The amount fell from US $ 750 million to the area of US $ 45 / US $ 50 million. From then on, there was a gradual upturn in the demand for “greenback”, although still far from the records of last year.