Monday, May 16

Spain sees its recovery expectations diminishing

This is not a matter of faith but of numbers and bare figures. Despite that, the interpretations are multiple, with glasses half full or empty depending on who is looking at them. In the case of the growth of the Spanish economy, we see that the expected advances they are placed in the environment of 5.5% to 5.8% for the current exercise.

Today, when we know the growth of 2021, we are already facing what awaits us in 2022. the IMF, the International Monetary Fund places the growth estimate for the Spanish economy this year at 5.8%, the best without a doubt in the Eurozone, but let’s not forget that sword of Damocles that haunts us: that 10.8% that we leave behind in 2020.

IMF GDP forecasts

And above all that lowers that growth again from the expected 6.4% previous in view of a lower level of global growth, before the arrival of omicron that has once again curbed expectations of recovery throughout the world. If we want to console ourselves, we can think that this advance is the largest not only in Europe, among the big countries, but also It exceeds the expected growth of the United States, of 4%, or of Japan, of 3.3%.

The IMF reminds us that we are in the third year of the pandemic, marked by the new restrictions on mobility due to the virus effect and by the shortage of labor in many sectors, also looking ahead to inflation, with excessive demand and debt record.

while from BBVA Research, the entity’s study service, we verified that its growth estimates are even below those levels: 5.5% estimated to grow the Spanish Gross Domestic Product in 2022. Also with moderation in global growth, but with an expected slowdown in economic activity in this first quarter exercise due to the increase in infections.

Everything will depend on the impact of the pandemic, so we could grow more, but raising the importance of the risks at stake: highest inflation and the response to this situation by the central banks, while continuing to put the spotlight on BBVA Research of the need to accelerate the implementation of Next Generation EU funds, while, in the medium term, they highlight, the bias will depend on the reforms that are adopted.

And very aware of whether we can value the use of two resources still on standby: on the one hand, the use of stored savings and on the other, heto high production capacity that we have not used either.

BBVA Research macroeconomic forecasts 2022

in Funcas, the vision also indicates that pre-pandemic recovery is delayed. And that, predictably, se reach in the first quarter of 2023.Estimates of growth of the Spanish economy for the current financial year for the Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros mark 5.6%. All on account of a domestic demand whose potential, of 5.2 points no less, will be the engine of this advance compared to the four tenths that foreign demand is expected to contribute to that GDP.

With all that, supported by European Funds, with good expected investment and construction data, they expect a rebound in family consumption due to what has been dammed up in the crisis and also higher disposable income, due to the improvement in employment.

Thus, he says, it will compensate for the loss of purchasing power of wages due to inflation, which they see as the greatest risk on the table. With an average forecast of 3.7% in 2022, that, in their role as experts, in which they consult 20 organizations, drops to 3.5%, they consider that, if they deviate, it would delay the recovery and cause a tightening of monetary policy by the ECB.

Funcas macroeconomic forecasts for 2022

Be that as it may, this expected growth of between 5.5 and 5.8% According to these three organisms is placed more than far from the 7% set by the Government, unchanged in their estimates. We will therefore have to be aware of the evolution of the pandemic, of the inflation effect and its presumed decline in the second half of the year, as well as the effect on the economy of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.

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