Thursday, May 26

Tezanos acknowledges that the CIS has not predicted “well” the vote for Vox and announces a “new estimation model”


The president of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), José Félix Tezanos, acknowledged this Wednesday that the institute has so far not been able to estimate the vote for Vox “well” and has announced that a “new estimation model” has been implemented. ” that has already been applied in the March Barometer that will be made public this Thursday. “We are not estimating the Vox vote well, because there is probably a hidden vote,” he assured during an appearance in Congress, in response to a far-right deputy who had reproached him for the fact that, in his studies, the CIS predicted the lower the vote to Vox.

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Asked about the controversial leak to former Vice President Pablo Iglesias, who in his Telegram profile published data from a CIS barometer that had not yet been made public, Tezanos explained that he did not leak “anything” to the former leader of Podemos, among other reasons. , “because I did not have the final data”. The president of the sociological organization has recognized, however, that in the internal investigation opened by his department it has not been “managed to find out” where Iglesias was informed of these data. “That someone has the data a few minutes before does not worry me, but he has not left me or my trusted team”, he has settled.

The president of the CIS has also assured that since 2019 “there is a new pattern of political and electoral behavior” in Spain, in which “there is high volatility”. “What one thinks to vote for at the beginning of the campaign is not always what one ends up voting for and campaigns are much more open”, he has stated.

In fact, Tezanos has argued that a “new type of voter” has emerged who “usually hesitates” between voting for “several parties.” “He has two or three parties as a horizon of possibilities from the beginning of the electoral campaign and decides at the end”, he pointed out, because “the last days of the campaign are the days in which most of the decisions are being cooked” .

As an example, he cited the last elections held in Spain, which took place in Castilla y León on February 13. According to their data, 57% of the voters had decided their vote “at the beginning of the campaign”, 12% decided it at the beginning, 36.9% chose it during the campaign, 4.4% decided it in the day of reflection and 9.4%, the same day of the vote.

During his speech in the Constitutional Commission of the Lower House, Tezanos has also tried to refute the idea that “the CIS overestimates the PSOE vote” for having “evidence that it is not true.” “The forecast of the PSOE in the CIS polls was 30.1% and the result was exactly 30.1%, and it is a coincidence”, he settled.

“The probability is not absolute”

A large part of his appearance has been dedicated to defending the work of the CIS against the “fallacies” of which he claims to be a victim. For example, he has said that “it is unfounded” to maintain “that electoral behavior is completely predictable.” “Because we do not have the capacity to know human behavior,” she pointed out. His, he added, “is an exemplary body”, but he has insisted that “we must be very careful with the polls”. “You have to understand why these investigations are being carried out, what their scientific basis is and the margins of error”, he stressed.

It is about a “science, sociology” and a “technique”, that of surveys, “which operates with approximation”. “Anything that pretends that you have the ability to establish certainties or what is going to happen is pure magic,” he acknowledged, although he wanted to make it clear that the CIS “is an exhaustive job” and that it has the ability “to do” 1,000 surveys a day“. “The probability is not absolute,” he stressed. “It would be inhumane to reach societies in which we pretend that everything is predictable”, he concluded.



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