Saturday, August 13

The Andalusian Government paves the way for the electoral advance

“The elections will be on November 27, 2022”, the Andalusian Executive spokesman, Elías Bendodo, settled in May, given the possibility of an electoral advance. But the constant threats of Vox’s rupture, which expose a minority government, and the proximity of the end of the legislature (which should expire at the latest in December) have caused that since the government of Juan Manuel Moreno they already play with the idea of ​​calling the regional elections in advance.

The possibility takes hold in the Palacio de San Telmo. The date given by Bendodo is no longer fiercely defended and although he insists on exhausting the mandate, the PP parliamentary spokesman, José Antonio Nieto, has paved the way this week by considering that the call for elections in June or October 2022 ” it would not be an advance as such. ” The Government defends that it would be a mere “technical advance”.

Moreno does not seem willing to start the electoral campaign until he has approved two of his “key” projects: the Law to Promote the Sustainability of the Territory of Andalusia (LISTA), known as the Land Law, and the new Tax Law Assigned. After the summer break, a legislative push to both texts is expected. With these initiatives closed, the dissolution of the Andalusian Parliament would be on track. The Vox deputy and his previous parliamentary spokesman, Alejandro Hernández, have already said: “The new land law and the tax reform are valid for one legislature.”

These laws mark the agenda although the regional budgets for next year are also on the table. The Minister of Finance and European Finance, Juan Bravo, has been working since last June to close the accounts for 2022. He uses as a guarantee his willingness “to agree, to consensus and to dialogue” to have the approval of the different parliamentary groups. But the proximity of the end of the legislature poses difficulties for Vox to support what would be the fourth regional accounts since the arrival of PP and Ciudadanos to the government. Bravo is aware of this circumstance and does not rule out extending current budgets. The vice president of the Board and regional coordinator of Citizens, Juan Marín, believes that this “It would not be a bad option when there are going to be elections in 2022”. The question is when.

Waiting for the final break with Vox

The legislative capacity of the Andalusian Government needs Vox. Proof of this are the concessions that the Executive has given him to promote his ideological agenda in relation to “domestic violence” and “irregular immigration.” Ideas in exchange for support. It has been the story of Peter and the wolf in a loop.

With the legislature in its last stretch, the threats of a final break seem to be repeated more often. This way of doing politics between the Andalusian Government and Vox has become so normal that Andalusians are already cured of terror at the successive ultimatums that Santiago Abascal gives to the leader of the popular, Pablo Casado in Madrid. What if the “no” of the PP to Vox’s motion of censure against Pedro Sánchez, what if the migration crisis in Ceuta. Yes yes…

The main confrontations always come from situations given from Despeñaperros upwards. It is then when the “encapsulation” of Andalusia with respect to national politics suffers. Abascal reads the primer to his regional leaders in an attempt to harden the discourse. The Andalusian Executive has always maintained composure in the face of these attacks and no match balls have ever been played.

But one day the blood reached the river. Moreno’s first parliamentary defeat came after Vox abstained in the debate to amend the entirety of the Law to Promote the Sustainability of the Territory of Andalusia (LISTA). The setback of the far-right formation caused its parliamentary procedure to be postponed against the plans of the Executive. The reason given by the extreme right was far from Andalusia: it was the migration crisis in Ceuta and the reception of 13 Moroccan children that caused the confrontation.

The weakest rival

The Andalusian government has dealt with these setbacks to boast of political stability, although Vox has always targeted the weakest rival: Ciudadanos. The Arrimadas party has been the target of criticism due to its scandals in the City Councils of Granada and Jaén. Vox has used its reluctance to accuse those of Marín of being in a process of “decomposition” that makes, in their eyes, stagger the Executive.

The position of Citizens in Andalusia is delicate. He fails to capitalize on his position within the Executive and polls predict a future in political irrelevance in Andalusia. Hence, Marín wants to extend the legislature as much as possible.

The PP has tried to alleviate Vox’s attacks on its government partner by appealing to political “responsibility”. The message is to make those of Abascal participate in the “change” that ended 37 years of socialist governments in the Junta de Andalucía. The Andalusian Executive has highlighted the “serious and responsible work” of Vox in Andalusia and has asked the national direction of Abascal to take it into account and provide greater “autonomy” in the region. But, with the proximity of the regional elections, it is expected that PP, Citizens and Vox mark distance.

To save time

Meanwhile, the PSOE tries to buy time and awaits the “Swords revolution.” After the mayor of Seville, Juan Espadas, took over the leadership of the Andalusian socialist federation, the strategy set out has been to assert its status as the most voted force in Andalusia. In defense of “the interests of the Andalusians”, Espadas proposed a “constructive opposition” to Moreno.

For now, these “bridges” have brought more doubts than certainties. More than support, the abstention of the Socialists for the LIST to start its parliamentary process is a pending debt that the PSOE could not validate in the last government of Susana Díaz. Neither one trusts and the PP would only use the socialist trump card if relations with Vox become enraged. The PSOE has offered itself as an alternative so that the Andalusian government is not a “hostage” of the extreme right, but it is not going to facilitate its political agenda with the elections just around the corner.

Espadas tries to find the balance so that the legislature is lengthened and at the same time vindicates its role in the opposition. The PSOE needs time to consolidate its new project and have a chance to unseat Moreno de San Telmo. For now, the polls make it difficult for them.