Thursday, February 2

The banking of the IBEX 35 eats its potential rise for the year


The bank commands the greatest revaluations so far this year in the IBEX 35. caixabank is the selective component that rises the most, 19 percent, followed by Bankinter, which advances more than 16 percent, and Sabadell Bank, which amounts to just under 16 percent.

BBVA Y Santander Bank They are also placed in the noble zone of increases with 9.5 percent and 7 percent respectively, seventh and tenth place.

The brilliant rise of the sector in the domestic stock market is also reproduced among its peers on the Old Continent.

The European banking sector is the one that appreciates the most in 2022 in the Eurostoxx 600, 10 percent. Caixabank is also the most advanced of the entire selection, while Bankinter and Banco Sabadell occupy 4th and 5th place in each case.

The good stock market performance also extends to the Eurostoxx 50 where BBVA is positioned as the fourth great European stock that has risen the most since the beginning of the year.

The banking rally has caused the potential granted by the market consensus for the whole year to begin to run out quickly and that in some cases they have already been eaten.

Banco Sabadell forgets about pre-pandemic levels

This is the case with Banco Sabadell, which just hit your average target price for the whole year at 0.69 euros.

The situation has made some investment entities move, such as HSBC Y JB Capital who trust the Catalan entity and have improved the recommendation to “buy” by raising their target prices, throwing new potentials up to 30 percent.

Banco Sabadell would be the only value among its peers where analysts they do not see the capacity to exceed pre-Covid-19 levels, just above the euro per share, nor exceed the post-pandemic maximums, at 0.72 euros in May 2021.

Bankinter, towards post-pandemic maximums

The experts who follow Bankinter believe that It has a capacity of 12 months to reach 5.28 euros, which would mean exceeding its post-pandemic maximums achieved at 5.24 euros at the end of September this year.

The value is trading on 5.2 euros, so it is a 1 percent increase from reaching the price set by the experts. Bankinter will be the first large Spanish entity to render annual accounts this Thursday.

Finanzas.com announced that it will achieve the best benefits in its history thanks to the capital gains generated by divestment of LĂ­nea Directa. Without this extraordinary, the benefit will still continue below 2019, the year before the outbreak of the coronavirus.

the rise of Caixabank causes the value to go from being the one that offered the most potential among its national peers at the end of the year to reduce it to 4.5 percent, which would take the titles to 3.03 euros from the 2.9 euros at which it is currently listed.

The current price is already higher than the levels prior to the coronavirus and if it reaches 3.03 euros it would go to levels not seen since March 2019.

BBVA and Banco Santander, the greatest potential

BBVA shares develop a situation similar to that of Caixabank since, if the average target price was achieved, at 6.49 euros, it would not only exceed its post-pandemic maximums, achieved in November 2021 at 6.29 euros, but would also go to levels of July 2018.

Yes indeed, the potential is higher, 13 percent. The market continues to turn with the option that BBVA stay with the business of Citi in Mexico to establish itself as the largest commercial bank in the country and consolidate Mexico as the great bastion of the entire group.

BBVA has liquidity for it. The entity, according to its own forecasts, will have an excess of capital of more than 2,000 million euros after the repurchase of shares and the takeover bid on Guarantee, and would be able to generate between 1,000 million and 1,500 million more each year until the conclusion of the strategic plan in 2024.

Analysts encrypt the purchase of Banomex, Citi’s commercial banking in Mexico, at 6,000 million euros. Another candidate is Banco Santander and although experts believe that it should make a capital increase to undertake the operation, the option is juicy for the Cantabrians.

If Banco Santander stays with Banomex, it would also be the country’s benchmark in retail banking, and the main stumbling block for both entities is the Mexican government itself, since he prefers a bank that does not already have a relevant presence in the country.

Banco Santander is now trading at around 3.1 euros and the average consensus target price takes the shares to 3.76 euros, from which a potential approaching 20 percent. It would be prices not seen for the entity just before the outbreak of the coronavirus.



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