The price of bitcoin (BTC) at the time of writing this article is USD 42,000 and has been lateralizing in the range of USD 40,000 for several weeks. According to the latest weekly report from analytics firm Glassnode, the continuation of the uptrend “is still on the cards.”
But, don’t get too excited. Too indica Glassnode that “bitcoin bears” (i.e. investors who believe the price will go down) certainly have the upper hand on the “bulls” (those who believe that the price will rise). They are “modest bullish divergences in a number of metrics and indicators in on-chain» which gives some possibility that this situation will change.
The company also refers to a strong bullish sentiment on the part of the market. This is something that anyone who listens to podcasts, youtubers or follows analysts on “cryptoTwitter” can check. It is often said and promoted that BTC has not yet reached its maximum price in this cycle.
It can go up, it can go down… chances are “who knows?”
On the current situation of the price of bitcoin (value that can be consulted in the CriptoNoticias Calculator), Glassnode expresses:
“Values indicate that bitcoin is possibly overbought or oversold as market valuation deviates from more fundamental capital inflows or outflows”
Glassnode, market analytics firm.
That is to say, the team that prepares the report does not take a strong side for either possibility, bullish or bearish, for the price of the cryptoactive (beyond the fact that, as mentioned, they seem to lean towards the bearish scenario due to probabilities).
In any case, this overbought or oversold can make us think of a state of “tense calm”, as if it were stillness in the eye of a tornado. As if something were about to happen imminently, although there is no glimpse of where the shot will go.
Who does have a strong conviction on this subject is the analyst Willy Woo, who usually bases his forecasts on the reports and data provided by Glassnode. As this medium reported yesterday, this professional trader is convinced that the price of BTC will soon bottom out and then continue its ascent.
Woo, as can be seen from most of his analysis, seems to have a constant bullish bias on the price of bitcoin. On this occasion, he maintains that the cryptocurrency is oversold and its price will soon bounce higher.
Bulls and bears in an even fight for the price of bitcoin
Part of Glassnode’s analysis is based on studying the market psychology of different types of bitcoin investors (or “cohorts,” as the company calls them): short-term hodlers and long-term hodlers.
Based on them, the company reaches the conclusion, in general, of that the price of bitcoin is in a stage of accumulation and redistribution. That is, there are entities selling their BTC, but also, to the same extent, there are those who consider it to be a good purchase price. That is what causes price lateralization.
As the following graph shows, among those who are selling their coins now, few are doing so at a profit (that is, at a higher price than they bought them):
Again we see this situation of “tense calm”. As if it were the game of rope (or cinching) in which two teams pull a rope and the strongest one wins, this is the price of BTC. The bulls and bears are fighting and, for now, the fight is tied. Whoever gives in first will either make supply or demand prevail, and push the price of BTC towards the rival’s side.