Wednesday, December 8

The CCL soared almost $ 25 after the election and took more than $ 7 out of the blue dollar

In just three days, the CCL dollar has already accumulated a jump of almost $ 25 or more than 13%, practically eliminating the so-called “gap of the gap”, or the spread that existed with the “free” CCL dollar (operated with bonds under law). foreign, ADRs, Cedears or bilateral negotiations), which this Wednesday culminated between $ 212.74 and $ 214.33.

With the same trend, but a few steps lower, the MEP dollar was located which, after rising strongly during the day (for much of the day it surpassed the blue), it closed down 30 cents and returned to $ 200.

“The convergence process is extending, although under a resumption of an upward slide, between the different exchange rates from a freer operation that is rapidly eliminating the ‘gap of the gap'”, commented a specialist.

In a climate of uncertainty and rumors regarding the agreement with the IMF, the complex scenario of net reserves led the BCRA to have to change its strategy and try to contain the exchange rate on the regulatory side, abandoning its active role in the market secondary. On Monday after the market closed, a resolution of the National Securities Commission (CNV) established that the limit of operations in the CCL must respect a technical limit (50,000 nominal dollars) beyond the purchases of public securities in foreign currency that have made every investor.

“Any policy that aims to sustain and grow reserves should have a positive impact on bond parities. The BCRA took a positive first step by stopping spending dollars on ineffective interventions. But there is still a lot of work to be done in the future. foreign exchange market to assuage investors’ doubts regarding the level of reserves, “they assessed from Delphos.

blue dollar

The blue dollar scored his second consecutive rally this Wednesday and exceeded $ 201, according to a survey of Ambit in the Black Market of Foreign Currency. The parallel dollar increased by $ 1 to $ 201.50, so that the gap exceeded 100%. The day before, it had increased by $ 1, after the implementation of new regulations in the operation of financial dollars, and after going down on Monday, a day after the legislative elections.

On Friday, the parallel dollar had yielded $ 6.50 to $ 200, after hitting its highest nominal value of $ 207 on Thursday.

Likewise, throughout October the informal dollar rose $ 11.50 (+ 6.2%) due to high inflation, exchange controls, fiscal deficit and firm country risk, which fueled devaluation expectations and put pressure on the currency, which it tends to make sudden jumps with just a few operations.

Anyway, so far in 2021 the parallel accumulates an appreciation of $ 35.50 (close to 20%), well below the accumulated inflation of 2021, above 41%.

Let us remember that during September, the informal dollar rose $ 4.50 (+ 2.5%), after posting its lowest rise since March in August, climbing just $ 1 (+ 0.6%). After hitting a low of $ 139 in early April, the parallel dollar increased $ 9 in April (6.4%), $ 7 (4.7%) in May, $ 11 (7%) in June, and $ 12.50 (+ 7.4%) in July.

Official dollar

The Central Bank chained two consecutive days without net sales, ending this Wednesday with a neutral balance in its interventions in the exchange market. The day before, he had bought about $ 50 million, after five wheels with negative balances on his interventions. The red of the month remains at about US $ 632 million and, given the current restrictions, It has room to end the month with a slight recovery that allows it to show a result that is not as bulky as that of last September (-u $ 950 million).

For its part, the retail dollar increased this Wednesday two cents to $ 105.94 -without taxes-, according to the average of the main banks in the financial system. In turn, the value of the US dollar in Banco Nación remained at $ 105.50. Thus, the savings or solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and a 35% on account of the Income Tax- advanced three cents to $ 174.80.

The wholesale dollar, meanwhile, went up six cents to $ 100.35, under the strict regulation of the BCRA. It was the biggest daily rise so far this week, after the monetary authority slowed down the advance of the dollar between Monday and Tuesday.

In any case, the biggest rise in the wholesale exchange rate on Wednesday was not enough to come close to the correction experienced by prices in the first three days of last week. In that period, the increase was 21 cents against 13 cents reached this week, recalled analyst Gustavo Quintana.

future dollar

In the ROFEX futures market, the dollar terms again showed recoveries as of December, which went from 0.4% to just over 1% for March 2022. In this way, November ended, with a rate of 18.19%, while that of December reached 39.51%. During the round, u $ s449 million were traded.

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