Saturday, December 10

The Country Risk reached 1,916 points, a new maximum since the 2020 swap


In the Poterña stock market, for its part, where the most salient was the rise in the dollar, the leading S&P Merval index of Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets (BYMA) lost 1.8%, to 83,622 units, after gaining 1.9% the day before. Over the week, the leading panel fell 2.2% (but 8.4% if we measure it at the exchange rate implied by asset prices).

The stocks that led the day’s declines were Transener (-4.6%); Macro Bank (-4%); and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (-3.5%). Only three papers closed on positive ground: Cablevision (+1.9%); Edenor (+1.6%); and Pampa Energia (+1%).

“Like all exaggeration, it is possible that at the slightest positive news, the trend will change. Today the moment is not in sight, but in the stock market it is known that nothing climbs over the trees and nothing descends to hell”, commented an experienced operator.

Increasing hedging in dollars put pressure on the foreign exchange market, which showed historical maximum nominal values ​​in the marginal price of the currency: blue climbed $5 to $219. In the stock market, “cash with settlement” (CCL) reached $225 and the MEP dollar closed at $212.74. The gap accelerated to a worrying 115%.

“The absence of a quick agreement with the IMF and the possibility of incurring in a default of payment for 2,879 million dollars in March put pressure on the prices (of the bonds),” they said from Portfolio Personal Investments. They added that “the large amount of pesos issued in the second half will converge with the seasonal drop in the demand for money in February. This could further inflate the prices of free dollars and, consequently, the exchange rate gap.”

Bonds and Country Risk

In the fixed income segment, On the other hand, bonds denominated in dollars closed with the majority of increases, after a bearish start. The most outstanding rises of the day were recorded by the Global 2041 (1.5%) and the Bonar 2041 (0.8%).

In any case, they accumulated an average drop of 2% in the week, with greater punishment in Global 2029, which lost 2.6%. “It is noteworthy that both on Thursday and this Friday we began to see some demand for Globals in the local stock market, especially in the 2038-2041 stretch,” they commented from SBS.

With everything, Country Risk rose 1.8% in the week to 1,916 basis points, highest level since the debt restructuring with private bondholders was sealed in September 2020.

“Securities in foreign currency continue to show very high rates of return (among the highest in the world), and operate between 20% and 27%. This not only makes financing more expensive for Argentina if it wanted to return to the voluntary debt markets, but it also affects the private sector if it wants to borrow,” dijo Research For Traders.

In the weight segment, dollar-linked sovereign bonds continued to take over as throughout the week, although with less volume than in the previous days: they rose 1.5% on average. During the week on TV22, it gained 1%, while the long section climbed 4%.

For their part, bonds in pesos with a CER adjustment reversed the selling bias of recent days and closed with a average gain of 0.5% (the advance of 2.2% in the Quasipar stood out). They thus accumulated an average rise of 1% in the week. The volume was concentrated in the TX22, while the greatest demand was seen in the medium/long section of the curve (TX26/TX28).



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