Boston Consulting Group believes that employment will be reduced due to the drop in production and the digitization and automation of factories.
The report concludes that, by 2030, 90% of the cars produced in Spain will still have a combustion engine.
The transition from automotive to electric mobility will lead to a reduction in employment in the 8% in 2030 compared to the figures for 2019. This is indicated by the study ‘Transition to the electric vehicle. Employment Observatory: Study and analysis of the evolution of employment in the ecosystem of electric mobility in Spain’, prepared by Boston Consulting Group and presented by Aedive, the Electric Mobility Business Association.
According to the document, the industrial part of the sector would reduce employment in Spain by 29,000 jobs, falling from 344,000 in 2019 to 315.000. The study admits that, despite the fall, the automotive-related labor market will be transformed with the loss of jobs related to vehicle assembly and the creation of other job profiles focused on the new components of the electric vehicle. In this way, job opportunities are expected in positions related to batteries, chargers and other services derived from the electrification of the sector.
In summer, the consultant KPMG Spain pointed to this metamorphosis of the labor market and anticipated that, if Spain “reinvents itself and focuses on new mobility & rdquor ;, between 860,000 and 1,460,000 new jobs could be created in the country. However, the consultant concluded that these figures would only be achieved if the Spanish sector faces its electrification and adapts at all levels to a completely electric, digitized and technological future, that is, an ideal scenario. The KPMG Spain study did not consider the jobs that would be lost in the same process.
From Boston Consulting Group move in this line and admit that it is vital that Spain bet on developing a complete value chain for the production of batteries. They depend on it 8,000 jobs. Likewise, promoting the recycling and reuse of batteries could increase employment in the sector by up to 20%. At the moment, Renault is the only brand that has announced plans to do something similar in Spain in Seville. Equally important will be the deployment of an adequate charging infrastructure, which would translate into 17,000 new jobs for the sector. In addition, the consultant estimates that 165,000 jobs will require specific qualification, which means that more than half of the workers will have to be trained.
On the opposite side, from Sernauto, the association of automotive suppliers, warned that, of the 225,000 professionals who depend on the supplier sector, 72,000 are related to the internal combustion engine, with which these jobs are in check in the coming years.
The future of the automotive industry, according to the consultant
The study also analyzes what the future of the automotive sector will be like in Spain. First of all, Boston Consulting Group estimates that production will remain stable at around 2.4 million units until 2030, which represents a drop in 16,3% compared to 2019 at a rate of approximately 1.6% per year. This reduction in assembly will result in the destruction of 21,000 jobs. Despite the drop in production, the consultancy identifies a 0.4% increase in productivity thanks to digitization and automation, although these processes will eliminate 4,000 more jobs.
At the same time, they will create 2,000 jobs by the technological evolution of the industry. However, the flight of talent to other European countries where employment will grow, such as Germany, will have a negative impact on the labor market in the Spanish sector with the loss of 1,5% of jobs per year.
Finally, the consultant points out that the 90% of the cars produced in Spain in 2030 will continue to equip a combustion engine, barely 2% less than in 2020. However, it considers that the 68% they will be plug-in hybrids, which include motor, or electric and the 30% conventional hybrids, which also equip a combustion engine. These figures point to a 52% rise in the production of 100% electric cars, and it is in this increase that most jobs will be created, always according to the report.