The Euribor, the index to which most Spanish mortgages are referenced, closed last month at -4.77%, which represents an increase compared to the -0.502 registered in December. The index yesterday stood at -0.453%. In this way, the monthly value is the highest since October of last year, when it marked the maximum value of 2021, of -0.477%.
This means that 20-year mortgages of 120,000 euros with a spread of Euribor +1% that are subject to revision will experience a reduction of 16.4 euros in its annual fee compared to the same month last year or, what is the same, 1.4 euros per month.
Iahorro analysts consider that the rise in January may mean “a change, although at the moment very slight, in the trend” in the evolution of the Euribor, reports Europa Press. However, the director of mortgages of the mortgage advisory platform, Simone Colombelli, rules out that the Euribor returns to positive territory “soon”, so that it will be “impossible” for significant changes to occur in mortgages this year.
“Yes, it is true that the trend will change sooner or later, but there is still a long way to go before this change is really substantial, unless the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, announces otherwise,” says Colombelli.
In addition, iahorro points out that Lagarde has recalled on several occasions that, in the event of raising interest rates, the consequences would come within a period of six to nine months, which could put a brake on economic activity in the eurozone. In addition, the ECB would be trusting that the rise in inflation will moderate without the need to raise interest rates.
However, the rise in inflation, caused by the rise in the prices of raw materials, fuel and electricity, among others, “has meant that many families who just make it to the end of the month have even more complications in coping with to their expenses, including the payment of the mortgage”.
This rise in prices, linked to the possible increase in the Euribor in the coming months or years, may lead banks to “be stricter” with the profile of the user to whom they grant a mortgage. “But the conditions of their products are not expected to worsen,” adds the platform.
The “fear” of the banks is towards an increase in delinquency. However, Colombelli explains that “it is difficult” to make a forecast on the evolution of the default rate. “It depends on whether the government extends the ICO loans in June and the conditions that this entails,” he adds.
“Furthermore, delinquency is not a static metric, it is dynamic: if the number of new mortgages goes down, the impact of delinquency will be even greater,” says the director of mortgages at iahorro.
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For their part, HelpMyCash analysts also maintain that the rise in the Euribor in January “will not be anecdotal” and this index “will continue to rise throughout 2022”.
However, since the ECB does not plan to raise interest rates in the short term, those with variable-rate mortgages “will continue to pay very low installments, although somewhat more expensive, than those they paid in 2021.”
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