Tuesday, July 5

The explosion of infections among young and unvaccinated multiplies the incidence in large cities

Source: autonomous communities

* Information updated with the latest data available as of July 6.

The increase in transmission among the young population at the beginning of the summer has triggered the incidence rates in Spain. The change in trend already affects 4 out of 5 large cities (140 of the 176 with more than 40,000 inhabitants) with very strong increases, where infections have multiplied by three, four, five and even by ten in just two weeks. This rapid increase in incidence is only being registered in the population between 10 and 40 years old, the youngest age groups where the vaccination campaign has reached the least, which, in turn, present data on runaway infections.

The most extreme cases are located in eleven large cities with incidence rates above 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days. In the Barcelona city of Sant Cugat del Vallès, the one with the highest income in Catalonia, infections have multiplied by 11 in two weeks and exceed 900 cases of incidence. They are followed by Barcelona (739), Zamora (708), León (683) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (626). In some cities, the rise in infections has been dazzling: Zamora, which two weeks ago had an AI of 102 cases, today registers 739, infections have multiplied by 7. In Reus (Barcelona) they have risen 821%, in Mollet del Vallés (Barcelona), 832% and in Lleida, 731%.

By territories, Catalonia is right now the great focus of the coronavirus in Spain: 27 of the 50 cities with the most incidence are in its territory. This ranking is joined by many coastal cities in the Mediterranean, the Canary Islands and the western provinces of Castilla y León. These are some of the results extracted from the analysis carried out by elDiario.es based on data from the health ministries of 17 autonomous communities and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. You can read more details about obtaining this data in the methodology.

At a global level, confirmed cases of COVID-19 already only continue to decline 📉 in 324 municipalities where 10% of the Spanish population lives. On the other hand, they are rising 📈 in 1,136 localities where 71% of the population lives and they are in the plateau phase (they remain more or less the same as two weeks ago) in 55, where 4% live. The rest are very small municipalities where very few cases are registered – less than 5 every two weeks – or for which there is no information available – which represent 15% of the Spanish population.

The following graph shows the ranking of large municipalities (with more than 40,000 inhabitants) according to the number of confirmed cases in the last 14 days in relation to their population and also how the incidence has varied in the last two weeks compared to the previous two.

Heterogeneous data and absence of small municipalities

The map that opens this information shows the data of total confirmed COVID-19 cases, in 14 days and the trend of infections in each municipality of the autonomous communities that have published their contagion data in each locality: practically the entire territory to With the exception of the smaller municipalities of Castilla y León, Catalonia and Galicia, which do not break down the figures for the municipalities with fewer inhabitants.

The data for each municipality show the same variable: the number of people who have tested positive for coronavirus and for whom their place of residence has been identified. Most communities include the data of positives by PCR test, antigen test and some also add the cases confirmed by rapid antibody test. This medium, which has been collecting data by municipality since the end of March, calculates the trend of cases in each municipality by comparing the number of confirmed cases in the last two weeks with the infections detected in the previous two weeks.

It must be taken into account that the data of the communities are not always homogeneous among themselves due to the type of tests they include, the dates on which they update their figures or due to changes in the publication of the data in the same month. The update date of each community depends on each one of them: most keep their figures updated weekly but some are delayed when updating their figures.

In total, the figures collected add up to three million cases of coronavirus in which the municipality of residence of the infected person has been identified. Of the 17 autonomous regions analyzed, Madrid is the city with the most infected people detected in a single municipality. However, the municipalities with the highest incidence rate (cases per 100,000 inhabitants) are small localities in which an outbreak can affect a larger proportion of the population.

Many municipalities do not appear as there is no data available and some communities do not publish the total number of confirmed cases since the beginning of the epidemic. It should be borne in mind that the number of cases is closely related to the ability of health authorities to detect them. That is, the more tests or analyzes performed, the more cases detected. How many confirmed cases are there in each municipality and how is the current incidence in your locality? Check it out in the following table.

Several communities initially refused to publish data by municipality to avoid the social stigmatization of small municipalities with many infected. This is the case of the Autonomous Government of La Rioja, which initially was not going to publish data by locality and now publishes it for all municipalities.

The Balearic Islands initially refused to share their data, although in the end they published them. Extremadura, under the same criteria, initially only published 8 most populated municipalities in the region. Now it publishes the figures even by local entities, villages and districts. Castilla y León is only publishing its figures for municipalities with more than 1,000 inhabitants and Castilla-La Mancha those with more than 500 inhabitants. They are not the only cases, practically half of the regions refused to publish their figures, arguing that they wanted to avoid the stigmatization of specific municipalities. Today, they all publish their data on COVID-19 cases by municipality.

Galicia has been the last to publish the figures by municipality, which has added to its COVID-19 data portal almost 6 months since the start of the epidemic. The Galician community does not publish the figures of the municipalities that have registered between one and nine cases in the last 14 days. Now all the autonomies publish the figures broken down by locality on their transparency portals, open data web or official pages with the situation of COVID-19.

Precisely, these data are essential to combat an epidemic: they make it possible to detect sources of contagion and act accordingly, provide more information to local administrations and regional governments of neighboring communities, and facilitate the analysis of the impact of the epidemic.

This analysis makes it possible to verify in which areas there is a higher incidence rate based on variables such as average income, percentage of the population over 65 years of age or population density. Precisely, from all administrations hundreds of statistics are published broken down by municipality: population by age, country of birth, nationality, average income, data on registered unemployment, level of studies or mortality rates.

Countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom or the United States publish their data on confirmed cases at the district, local authority and county level, an administrative level similar to a municipality in Spain.