Sunday, May 22

The ‘Feijóo effect’ shoots the PP in the CIS and leaves it only three points behind the PSOE

CIS April 2022

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

The arrival of Alberto Núñez Feijóo has triggered the estimation of the vote of the Popular Party. The April barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS)the first to be published since the official designation of the new leader of the opposition ventures an important promotion for the PP that would be only 2.9 points behind Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, which, according to the institute led by José Félix Tezanos, would continue being the most voted force in the event that the general elections were held now.

The ‘Feijóo effect’ is perceived both in the estimation and in the direct voting intention, where the difference with the PSOE is also similar –22.2% of votes for the Socialists and 20.6% for the PP–. Just a month ago, in the March barometer, the PSOE maintained an advantage of 7.7 points over the PP, although at that time the current leader of the popular party had not yet reached the presidency of the party and what that survey was more the internal battle unleashed in the PP between the previous leadership of Pablo Casado and the president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso.

Now, the CIS predicts a slight setback for the PSOE, which would obtain 30.3% of the votes compared to 31.5% a month ago, while the PP goes from 23.8% in March to 27.2% in April , 3.4 points higher than in the previous barometer. Vox, on the other hand, fell due to the increase in support for the PP and fell almost two points, going from 16.3% in March to 14.4% in April.

United We Can also drop which, compared to 11.8% of the estimated votes last month, fell to 10.7% in April. As for the smaller formations, Ciudadanos decreased from 3.2% in March to 2% in this barometer, and Más País-Compromís increased its vote prospects by just one tenth and stood at 2.1%.

In the spectrum of the nationalist and independentist parties, ERC falls back slightly in only three tenths and keeps 2.4% of the votes, the PNV would obtain 1.3% and EH Bildu 1.2% of the support, the same figure as Together. The CUP would achieve 0.9% of the votes and the BNG, 0.6%.

That of April is the second barometer in which a renewed estimation formula is applied, as announced by the president of the CIS, José Félix Tezanos, during an appearance in Congress in March. He acknowledged that the institute had not been able to estimate the vote for Vox “well” until now and announced that a “new estimation model” had been implemented, which was already applied in the March Barometer.

“We are not estimating the vote for Vox well, because there is probably a hidden vote,” he assured then, in response to a deputy from the extreme right who had reproached him for the fact that, in his studies, the CIS predicted the vote for Vox downwards. However, the new formula does not show a notable increase in the far right, not even in April, when the far right formation fell back compared to the previous month.