Moreno Bonilla has won these Andalusian elections because his candidate doubled and tripled his competitors in all variables, also because the PP had once again overwhelmingly occupied the political space that goes from the center to the extreme right. It was written in the CIS published before the campaign. Vox only surpassed the PP among the citizens who were at the extreme end. This has proven true in Andalusia. It does not mean that it will be or that it is inevitable in a general election.
The relevant reading in a state key is more about verifying that the Feijóo method of winning elections can also work outside of Galicia. Take center stage, turn down the noise, sell moderation, and fix the perception that there can only be one president. Feijóo did that to win four absolute majorities and Moreno Bonilla has repeated that to add the first. Whether or not he is from the center, that he lowers the noise only when it suits him or that the moderation of his policies remains in propaganda is another matter. The truth is that most have bought it and that is what counts in politics. Trying to present him as an ultra in the hands of the extreme right has worked in his favor.
The internal debate in the PP about whether the way to win Moncloa was through the guerrilla war proposed by Díaz Ayuso, or the wholesale of presidentialism and management defended by Feijóo, has ended. It has become clear that the popular voter fills the polls when he is offered a winner, voraciously seconded by the Ciudadanos voter. The combat is not ideological. The competition lies in connecting with an electorate that, in times of uncertainty and successive crises, seeks order, stability and that governments and rulers are predictable, rather than better or worse.
Andalusia marked the beginning of the Vox cycle in Spanish politics and now marks the beginning of its end. Until today, the right-wing voter chose his ballot thinking about who could make a tougher and harsher opposition against Pedro Sánchez because he knew that Pablo Casado could not win. Now he is voting again to elect a government and Vox has nothing to do there, he cannot compete. The 19J also leaves another reading: warn what’s coming vox has begun to fundamentally benefit the PP. Continuing to focus campaigns on whether or not the extreme right enters will be especially useful to Feijóo.
The socialist result is bad, although they can take comfort in the fact that it could have been much worse. Neither his candidate nor the party were in a position to compete in Andalusia. It was touted in all the polls. The PP can read that it has been a punishment vote for Sánchez. But the truth is that his campaign has not been raised like this at any time; quite the contrary. Surely because if something has sustained the PSOE above thirty deputies, it has been the management of the coalition government, from the minimum wage to the ERTES, through the labor reform, the Iberian island or fuel aid. It’s hard to see the good news on a night of so much defeat, but it is. The problem with Pedro Sánchez and his government is that people like his policies, but they are not convinced by those responsible for him. Faces change fast, policies take time.
To the left of the PSOE, with the demonstration that good campaigns matter that Teresa Rodríguez has contributed, they would commit another mistake to add to those already perpetrated if they transferred the Andalusian results to state politics and began a noisy search for culprits. It was the noise that brought you here. More noise is not going to get them out of where they are. To the left of the PSOE, in general, there is a well-known and valued candidate in Spain, there is relevant management with a direct impact on people’s lives to be amortized and there may be a project. They just need a bit of silence and put things in their order.
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