Wednesday, August 4

The fifth wave of Covid-19 rises rapidly and Madrid returns to extreme risk: these are the districts with the most infections

Madrid once again registers a high number of coronavirus cases. The contagions have skyrocketed in recent days until the city has once again entered the extreme risk for Covid-19 with 260 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The incidence is very high, rising rapidly in all districts of the city and these levels had not been recorded since last May. If this trend continues, the curve will exceed the data of the fourth wave in a single week.

Unlike the previous ones, this streak of infections is focusing on the youngest age groups, those who have been later delayed by vaccination and among whom the virus is being transmitted with great ease, helped by the new variants of the disease, much more contagious. The 15-29 year-old group has the highest incidence (791 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks, and rising), followed by the one between 30 and 39 years (307 of IA). The differences with the groups already vaccinated are abysmal: those over 80 register an incidence of 34, according to data from the latest weekly bulletin of the Community of Madrid.

Going down to the data for the capital, the incidence by districts is very uneven. The coronavirus is rising sharply in some of the city’s highest-income areas, while the pace is slower in lower-income areas. The worst situation is in Centro (465 incidence), Chamberí (446), Salamanca (423) and Chamartín (359). This graph shows the evolution of the pandemic in the capital in terms of the cumulative incidence, by district, during the last months:

At the bottom of the list, the districts with fewer cases are currently Villaverde (162), Villa de Vallecas (164) and Latina (170), with up to a third fewer infections than the areas of the city with more cases. The great difference between different areas of the capital is reminiscent of last summer, when the positives rose a lot in the southern neighborhoods and much less in the central and northern areas.

The fifth wave will probably exceed the fourth in a week, although it is still far from the second and third, levels that will be difficult to reach because the Covid-19 is now more difficult to move in many age groups, due to the good part of the population already vaccinated. The following graph shows the current level of infections compared to the previous peaks:

The Community of Madrid has decided that it will not yet apply new restrictions, despite the high incidence. It does so because this high peak of infections is not translating into a proportional increase in hospitalizations or deaths. The Madrid health system registers 367 patients with the disease in the ward and 108 in the ICU, levels that have barely risen in the last week and that maintain hospital admissions at levels similar to those of June of last year, just after the lockdown.

The following graph shows how the fifth wave is hardly affecting hospitalizations, for now. This is due to the positive effects of vaccination in the most vulnerable population and that the coronavirus is not especially serious in younger ages, although the increase in cases in this group increases the number of admissions at these ages.

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