Correspondent in Berlin
One week before the German elections and despite the fact that the conservatives of the CDU have achieved a change in the trend in the polls, with a rebound of three points in the last week, everything indicates that the most voted will be the social democrat Olaf Scholz. According to the latest ‘Politbarometer’ poll published by ZDF, the SPD gets 25% of the vote and the CDU 22%. Attention is already focused on the possible government coalitions and it is here where the small parties will play an important role, both the Greens, who lose one point to 16%, as Die Linke (The Left) with its 6% and the Liberals. of the FDP with its 11%. That is why the declaration of the liberal leader can be of definitive influence, Wolfgang Kubicki, who yesterday ruled out being part of a government with Scholz and pointed out as his preference the so-called ‘Jamaica coalition’, formed by conservatives, liberals and greens.
“We would very much like to form a ‘Jamaica coalition’. Even if the CDU were the second most voted force, behind the SPD, that would be the most beneficial government for Germany, ”said the party’s vice president. “No matter how big the gap is between the CDU and the SPD,” he added, “that is not the decisive criterion because it is enough for an alliance to have a majority.” The president of the FDP and electoral candidate, Christian LindnerHe recalled for his part that “there is no automatism that forces the candidate of the strongest party to move to the Chancellery.” “The CDU’s voting weakness is surprising, however, the CDU has stronger coalition options,” he underlined that strategy option, “and if the gap between the CDU and the SPD is still four or five percentage points, I suspect that there will be a migration of conservative votes to our party in the last week.
This transfer of votes may occur because the main campaign argument of the Conservatives is the effect that a left coalition would have on German political stability. The CDU has, in fact, recovered the expression Helmut Kohl used in 1994 to warn against the rise to power of the communists of the GDR reconverted to democracy, who are still present today in the Die Linke party and who are once again called ‘red socks’ at conservative rallies. Scholz, for his part, has been very careful not to rule out a possible coalition with the ex-communists.
The conservador Armin Laschet do not throw in the towel and remember that German voters have two votes, so they can support two different parties. He accuses Scholz of “dishonest” for preparing “a radical government behind his centrist mask”, referring to the electoral promises that he is airing the most in recent rallies and with which he aligns himself with Die Linke. Scholz guarantees that it will not accept that citizens have to pay more than a third of their income in rent, for example, and plans to limit the price increase on new contracts for five years. In the city of Berlin, the SPD has promoted a referendum on September 26 to vote on the expropriation of 200,000 homes. In addition, the Social Democrats look the other way when, in the Die Linke and the Greens elections, NATO and the Atlantic Alliance are charged with foreign policy, or the missions abroad of the German army and purchases are condemned. Defense material. In view of the fact that another great coalition would not achieve the necessary majority in the current state of the polls, the declaration made yesterday by the Liberals reduces the options to form a government and will undoubtedly favor a high percentage of undecided vote.