Luis Salvador is still mayor of Granada. The councilor of Citizens has not ceased to be, despite the fact that everything continues to be against him. With a single councilor on his government team, in addition to himself, he continues to lead the City Council trying to make time pass and some turn of events to allow him to remain the first mayor for the remaining two years in office. Although the PSOE has given him an ultimatum to leave or otherwise he will make a motion of censure, Salvador has not left and the Socialists have little room to carry out a motion. Whatever happens, the way out of the crisis predicts agreements that in the consistory are crossed out as “anomalous”.
One mayor against all: two weeks that have dynamited the bipartisan Citizens and PP in Granada
One thing has changed since last June 8, Luis Salvador was left with only one councilor in his government: now he admits that he is studying “other formulas” in which he can see himself as mayor or not. Options that go through pacts to the right or to the left that will portray those who carry them out. By municipal arithmetic, whether he goes on his own or not, changing the mayor of Granada will force agreements between those who seem to be poles apart or are, in principle, in distant positions.
Making numbers, we must start from the fact that the City Council has 27 councilors in total and therefore the absolute majority is in 14 councilors. To this day, the Government of Luis Salvador is supported only by him and by José Antonio Huertas, also from Ciudadanos. The rest are in the opposition. A nourished opposition in which are the 10 councilors from the PSOE, the 6 from the Popular Party, the 3 from Vox, the 3 from Unidos Podemos and IU and the non-attached councilors who are Sebastián Pérez, Lucía Garrido and Manuel Olivares. With this correlation of forces, it is clear that Luis Salvador cannot govern except on the basis of decrees, since the opposition has very easy to overthrow any of the proposals of his meager municipal government.
Assuming that its government capacity is limited, the future of the Granada City Council goes through a pact that allows Luis Salvador to once again have a municipal government, another that elevates a mayor of the PP or that the motion of censure proposed by the PSOE prospers . In that sense, for weeks it has been repeated that the next councilor will be called Paco. A name that can respond to that of the former mayor Francisco Cuenca (PSOE) or that of the former Chief of Staff Francisco Fuentes (PP). But for either of them to take control of the baton, agreements are needed that may sound surreal.
The socialist options
The options of Cuenca and the socialists go through several scenarios. The first, that of the motion of censure, forces them to convince at least Podemos-IU and the former councilman of the PP Sebastián Pérez. Thus they would achieve the 14 signatures necessary to regain the mayoralty. However, within the left-wing coalition it has been said, actively and passively, that, unless those registered decide otherwise, they would not vote for anything together with Sebastián Pérez. On the other hand, the former popular would not want to end his municipal political career by being the one who gave the Government to the PSOE, after having been president of the Granada PP for a decade and a half, although he dropped it at the press conference in which he resigned. Therefore, the motion of no confidence, with that arithmetic, does not seem feasible.
However, in the PSOE they admit that the situation is so “exceptional” and “anomalous” that it will require agreements that are. Although it may seem impossible, the Socialists do not close to negotiating an agreement with the Popular Party to carry out even a mandate of “concentration”. The PSOE is aware that any other agreement for a motion against Luis Salvador is very difficult and, appealing to the enmity that the popular people have with the mayor, they believe that it could be an opportunity to evict him from the City Council. In this regard, César Díaz, councilor of the PP, has already said that they do not have them for that company, but it is not a completely crazy idea. Popular Party sources consulted by eldiario.es Andalusia They do not rule out that agreement because they consider the mandate exhausted and because they assume that, if they let the PSOE govern, they could pressure them from the Junta de Andalucía.
There would be a third option to carry out this motion of censure, but it seems the most unfeasible. The PSOE should convince one of the remaining non-attached councilors (Lucía Garrido or Manuel Olivares) to add the 14 votes. However, having both belonged to the same political group as the mayor, the regulations indicate that they would need to have one more vote, that is, 15. Which would imply that both Garrido and Olivares should support that motion. A scenario that seems impossible with Olivares and that with Garrido is not ruled out, but it would force the courting of a PP mayor who voted in a minimum vote of no-confidence. What is completely ruled out is that there is no agreement between Vox and the PSOE.
A pact with the past
Without the numbers coming out for a motion of censure, it only remains for Luis Salvador to leave. That he does it of his own free will or because the pressures make him leave. City council sources admit that Salvador has no destinations to go to, because he has created a bad image during his political career. For this reason, unless someone finds him a place under the umbrella of the president of Citizens in Andalusia, Juan Marín, or that the national leadership of oranges rescue him for something with an uncertain future, the options of Salvador’s goodbye also go through very pacts. complicated.
As it slides into the corridors of the Granada City Council, one of the possibilities for the mayor to give up his place is to repeat precisely the investiture pact of 2019 that gave rise to the “2 + 2” that has dynamited everything. That is to say, that Luis Salvador gives up his seat assuming that the PP was not bluffing and that governing in the minority is difficult, thus remaining vice-mayor as Sebastián Pérez would have been, the man who turned everything upside down almost a month ago. In that case, the mayor would be someone from the Popular Party and there the figure of Francisco Fuentes would emerge, the only candidate that Pérez would vote for, as he himself recognized, and the only consensus figure that could allow this exit to be possible. But the agreement would also imply that all those who have been part of the Government team, including the non-attached councilors and Vox, would vote together for this change of mayor.
However, that could only happen after a resignation agreed with Luis Salvador in which he gave up his position as councilor but remained in the Consistory, causing some instability every time there were no understandings because Salvador and Huertas would go with some freedom with respect to the rest of the councilors. Anyway, if in the end it happened, it would be necessary to go to an investiture plenary session in which the sum could also bring a final surprise. If Fuentes, or any other candidate of the PP, does not achieve the 14 signatures of the councilors of the PP, Vox, Ciudadanos and the three not attached, the PSOE would take over the mayor’s office. The Socialists won the 2019 elections and they are the ones who have the most councilors, so Francisco Cuenca would be mayor.
Finally, in the area of the most unlikely, there are two more options that must be highlighted. One that is considered a rumor in the corridors of the City Council but that every day has more weight and another that seems unfeasible because it requires the participation of the Government of Pedro Sánchez. The first speaks of a possible pact between PSOE, Podemos-IU and Luis Salvador to make Cuenca mayor with an agreement in which Ciudadanos entered, disgusted by the rudeness of the PP. It sounds surreal and it probably is, but in the Town Hall it is listened to. The other option is the one proposed by Vox to ask the Council of Ministers to promote exceptional municipal elections, as it already happened in the 90s in Marbella, so that a Government would be elected for the two years that remain in office. Something that sounds like a fable and that does not have much travel beyond the media headline. Therefore, to this day, Granada remains ungovernable, but with the clock ticking and making the situation untenable.