Monday, May 16

The Ibex 35 is already heading for 8,700 points, with strong rises for IAG and Amadeus

It seems that the Spanish market is recovering, and awaits the message released by the Fed today with a renewed dose of confidence. Against this background, the IBEX 35 rose strongly in the mid-session, 2.29% to 8,673 points. The best is for IAG (Iberia), with advances of 7.50% at 1.8990 euros. It is followed by Amadeus, which rises 4.53% at 61.78 and ArcelorMittal, with increases of 4.09% at 27.8450 euros.

In negative, only three values ​​in the selective: Aena, which yields 1.34% in the 143.35 euros, Enagás leaves 0.13% in the 19.7650 and Red Eléctrica cuts 0.08% in the €17.7150.

The falls of the Spanish airport manager come after a double downside recommendation received today. Specific, Berenberg downgrade the rating Aena from “buy” to “hold”, and cut the price target from 155 to 145 euros. On the other hand, broker analysts Stifel They cut their recommendation to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’, with a price target of 150 euros per share, leaving just 3% upside potential.

At Continuous Market the biggest increases are for Tecnicas Reunidas (12.31%), GAM (8%) and Ecoener (7.11%). On the opposite side, the biggest falls are for Iberpapel (-1.89%), ISE (-1.41%) and Neinor Homes (-1.40%).

In other news, Renta 4 increases its annual net profit by 39.7% to 25.3 million euros. The interest margin fell by 46% and stood at 215,000 euros, due to the high liquidity maintained in the balance sheet remunerated at a negative interest rate. The result of financial operations amounted to 11.1 million euros (+17.5%) and the gross margin grew by 26.1%, to 116.1 million. Regarding costs, operating costs rose by 19.4%, to 81.8 million euros, with an increase of 28.5% in personnel costs. The provision for impairment of financial assets amounted to 2 million euros, 28.9% less than in the previous year. The bank It is listed with increases of 0.20% in the 10 euros.

IATA is concerned about Airbus’ decision to revoke a contract with Qatar Airways. Today sup 3.19% at 111.58.

Atresmedia, owner of the television channels Antena 3 and La Sexta, among others, announced this Wednesday to the CNMV that its participation in the capital of Fever Labs now stands at 10.2% “on a fully diluted basis”. Atresmedia entered the capital of this emerging company (or start-up) in 2018 and in its statement highlights its “very significant growth in recent years”. At this time the value rises 1.52%.

macro and politics

analysts They expect the Federal Reserve to anticipate on Wednesday its plans to raise interest rates in March, while focusing on fighting inflation and setting aside, at least for now, the economic risks posed by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, a bout of market volatility and Western fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Powell has a difficult task: convince investors that the Fed will be able to act decisively to try to moderate high inflation without penalizing economic growth and causing a new recession. Although the recent speech by the Fed and most of its members indicates that the US economy is showing great strength, as is its labor market, and that, for this reason, among other things, they should speed up the start of the withdrawal process of monetary stimuli, the main macroeconomic indicators that have been released so far, corresponding to the month of January, “show a much less thriving US economy. Since Link Securities point out that “it will be necessary to see how Powell is able to “fight this bull”, taking into account the high tension that the financial markets are going through. If Powell shows great forcefulness in his speech and opens the door to more than three/four hikes rates in 2022 -futures discount with a probability of 65% four increases in 2020- and at the beginning of the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, the stock markets are going to be more nervous than they already are, since this would mean confirm his “worst” scenario. If, on the contrary, Powell is not excessively concerned about inflation and reiterates that the US central bank will gradually raise its official rates starting in March and does not stress the urgent need to start the process of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction this year, this is likely to facilitate a small rally of relief in the bags”.

US President Joe Biden said Tuesday that he would consider imposing personal sanctions on President Vladimir Putin if Russia invades. Ukraine, as Western leaders intensified military preparations and made plans to protect Europe from a potential energy supply crisis.

Some of those responsible for the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan They see consumer inflation briefly accelerating toward their 2% target as price pressures build from changing business pricing behavior, according to a summary of views issued at the meeting that the bank celebrated in January.

other markets

In Europe the DAX it rises 2.27%, to 15,467.62 points. The CAC-40 adds 2.30%, on the 15,467.62 points, the FTSE 100 rises 1.77% in the 7,502.76 and the FTSE MIB advances 2.09%, up to 26,569.00 points. Also advances for the Euro Stoxx, of 2.34%.

The asian stock markets They entered the session cautiously, after another volatile session on Wall Street, as investors braced for the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, watching for any signs of a faster tightening of monetary policy.

The Nikkei 0.44% is left at 27,011 points and the Hang Seng de Hong Kong, 0.04% in the 24,232 points and the Kospi from Seoul, 0.41% to 2,709 units. In positive the Shanghai Composite, which rises 0.66% in the 3,455 points and el SZSE Component, with advances of 0.63%.

In Wall Street, the last session closed with sharp falls: the DOW JONES Ind Average fell 0.19% to 34,297.73 points, the S&P 500 fell 1.22% to 4,356.45 and the NASDAQ 100 fell 2, 48% at 14,149.12 points, to a level not seen since June 2021. This Wednesday, Futures are trading slightly up 0.03% for the Dow Jones, 0.07% for the S&P500 and 0.33% for the Nasdaq.

The prices of Petroleum They were lower as investors took profits ahead of the Federal Reserve news, although fears of lower supply due to tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East capped losses. Right now, Brent futures are trading 0.75% higher at $87.83 a barrel, while West Texas futures are up 0.65% at $86.16.

The price of Bitcoin marks a rise of 2.36% and recovers to exceed 37,961.1 dollars, after the sharp falls in recent sessions. After losing more than 50% from highs and bottoming at $30,000, the cryptocurrency benefits from the better tone of the markets this Wednesday.

The euro/dollar yields 0.16% at 1.1280 EUR/USD.

agenda of the day

In Spain the INE disseminates data on mortgages in November.

Wednesday starts at Europe with the publication of consumer confidence for January in France, while Italy will publish the trade balance for December.

In USA, mortgage data from the MBA and also housing data will be released, but the attention of the day will be focused on the second session of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve. Investors are waiting for some message on the Fed’s plans for rate hikes this year.