Friday, January 28

The IBEX 35 will gain 11% in 2022. There are forecasts of 25%

The IBEX 35 it will leave its battle of 2021 lows to launch for 10,000 points in 2022. Experts hope that next year will bring a global economic recovery that will facilitate the escalation of the national selective.

The benchmark index of the Spanish stock market is close to closing 2021 with an improvement of 6 percent after starting in January at 8,099 points and reaching around 8,600 points during this last week of the year.

To reach these heights, however, the IBEX 35 went through valleys that put it below 8,000 points in February, experiencing its best moments during May, June and November, at which peaks it traded above 9,000 points .

In 2022, this battle of survival should remain for the annals of history, in the eyes of the sources consulted, who hope that the IBEX 35 will fight to reach 10,000 points in a context of global economic recovery, which will benefit a selective Spanish where Tourism, banking and utility values ​​prevail.

Given the volatility that in 2021 has plagued a stock market indicator affected by inflation and the appearance of new variants, such as the omicron, 2022 is presented as a year of uncertainty where, however, optimism prevails.

IBEX 35 (IB)IBEX 35 (IB)

58,400,68 %


The goal of 10,000 points

Before the fateful March 2020, which marked the beginning of a pandemic that still lasts, the IBEX 35 was close to the 10,000 integers that it last wore in 2018.

Both the forecasts and the wishes of investors happen because the selective returns to approach this level in 2022.

From Bankinter, for example, they point out in their valuation that the IBEX 35 will reach 9,933 points as of December 2022, which would imply an improvement of around 11 percent compared to its current price.

In a more favorable scenario, the bank’s estimates show an improvement forecast to 10,639 points, and even in the worst scenario, a rise is predicted to 9,262 points.

“Spain will take the lead in Europe in terms of growth in 2022, also because it has consistently lagged behind before”

Natalia Aguirre, Income 4 analyst

“Although lagging behind the main stock exchanges, the IBEX 35 business results will lead growth in the 2022 estimates (+12 percent vs +8 percent of the Eurostoxx 50) driven by banks, industrialists, consumer cyclists and tourism” , they point out from the bank.

In its forecast report for 2022, Bankinter highlights its preference for cyclical sectors. It emphasizes a banking sector “facing a very favorable environment due to the economic recovery, controlled delinquencies, the normalization of rates and the increase in dividends.”

In the same way, the financial institution indicates that it will avoid defensive sectors with less capacity for growth, and that they will be the main harmed by the rebound in bond yields.

Improvement of banking, tourism and services

In this same line of optimistic forecasts, Renta 4 Banco also moves, which in the definition of its strategy for 2022 expects an increase of more than 25 percent for the IBEX 35, which would lead it to trade around 10,700 points at 12 months. view.

Income 4 analyst Natalia Aguirre explained in the presentation of this strategy That your institution’s confidence that the IBEX 35 will recover, at least partially, its worst performance relative to Europe in 2022 is due to several factors.

“We believe that Spain is going to lead Europe in terms of growth in 2022, also because before it has been systematically behind. Secondly, there is going to be a global economic recovery,” said Aguirre.

“We are not clear that consumers can cope with high inflation without the savings generated during the pandemic”

Víctor Peiro, director of analysis at GVC Gaesco

“It is said that foreign investors do not invest in Spain. The IBEX is not Spain, we have very global companies, very well managed and that can benefit from this recovery in the global economic cycle,” he said.

And again, like Bankinter, from Renta 4 they point to the weight of a banking sector “that should do well” in a context of gradual normalization of monetary policies and a rebound in the IRR.

Finally, the lower regulatory risk of utilities and services companies, such as energy companies, and the expected recovery in tourism are other factors to take into account when betting on the recovery of the IBEX 35.

The risks that will mark the development of the IBEX 35

The recovery of the IBEX 35 in 2022 will undoubtedly go through a global economic recovery that will depend on a scenario in which GVC Gaesco sees “troubled waters”.

Víctor Peiro, director of analysis at GVC Gaesco, warned, in the presentation of the manager’s strategy for 2022, that “there are reasons to be cautious with the market.”

“It is not clear to us that consumers can cope with the strong inflation of energy, housing and many other products once the savings generated during the pandemic have ended,” said Peiro.

With this call for caution ahead, from GVC Gaesco Valores consider that the return to normality will continue to fuel episodes of volatility, but they trust the role of central banks to control them.

In this context, however, the firm predicts average returns of up to 10 percent in the markets for next year, which in the case of the medium and long-term growth potential of the IBEX 35 is expected to rise to 20.9 percent, compared to 16.7 percent for the Eurostoxx 50, and 9.8 percent for the S&P 500.