Thursday, December 2

The industry rebounded in September after two falls and grew 2.7% monthly, according to UIA

With this data, The first nine months of the year accumulated an increase of + 17.7% year-on-year and + 6.8% compared to 2019.

In the annual accumulated, 8 of 12 sectors that make up the IPI-CEU maintained increases compared to 2019, mainly those of durable goods and some of their chains (Automotive, Non-metallic Minerals, Chemicals, Rubber and Plastics, Tobacco and some segments of Food and Beverages, Metalworking and Paper and cardboard). Still another 4 sectors continue below (Publishing and Printing, Basic Metals, Petroleum Refining and Textile Products).

In the month of September, the biggest increases were seen in sectors such as Automotive, that had a breakthrough of + 35.4% compared to 2020 and + 57.2% compared to 2019, driven by the good performance of exports, although sales to the domestic market contracted as a result of supply restrictions, global shortages and difficulties in international logistics.

There were also increases in the industry of Non-metallic minerals (+ 6.2% annually and + 22.5% compared to 2019) from the recovery of construction and home spare parts.

For its part, The Consumer Electronics sector registered an annual increase of + 9.4%, while compared to 2019 the increase was + 54.6%, largely driven by cell phone production. This sector is in a recovery phase after the sharp falls of the previous years, although the expansion of consumption continues below the productive expansion, which could limit the positive trend in the coming months.

Meanwhile, there are other sectors that follow this positive dynamic as they are industrial suppliers, said the UIA. This is the case of Metalworking, which registered an expansion of + 17.1% year-on-year and also in the comparison with 2019 (+ 17.7%) for the fourth consecutive month.

Within the sector, among the most dynamic branches are agricultural machinery and bodies, trailers and semi-trailers, and auto parts, although there are others with slower recovery. Also that of Oil refining, which registered a year-on-year expansion of + 22.9%, and managed to exceed the levels of 2019 for the first time (+ 1%).

On the other hand, there are other sectors that Although they marked increases with respect to 2019, they have a heterogeneous behavior towards the interior. This is the case of Paper and Cardboard: the sector registered a year-on-year increase (+ 9.8%) and also compared to 2019 levels (+ 14.1%).

However, the increase continues to be driven almost exclusively by the production of paper for packaging as a result of the expansion of e-commerce, while other items such as Newsprint and printing paper are below 2019 levels, largely due to the rise of digital media and virtuality.

On the other hand, Substances and chemical products registered an increase of + 4.6% compared to 2020 while compared to 2019 the increase was even higher (+ 23.9%). In this sector, the rise was mainly driven by basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, detergents and soaps and industrial gases, while the production of agrochemicals continues to decline.

The variations reflect a fairly high comparison base in 2020, given the great demand for different items in the sector due to the changes in consumption patterns generated by the pandemic. According to IQVIA data, the pharmaceutical market accumulated a year-on-year increase of + 9% in the first 9 months of the year.

On the other hand, Food and beverages registered a rise of + 3.9% in the comparison with 2020 while compared to 2019 the increase was greater (+ 10.9%). Within the sector there are heterogeneities, with a boost in the production of spirits, non-alcoholic beverages, tea, oilseed milling and yerba mate, while others such as beef, wines and fishing had a worse performance.

Other sectors showed strong increases compared to the previous year and, although they are gradually showing improvements compared to 2019, in August they were still at lower values ‚Äč‚Äčthan those of that year. Such is the case of Basic Metals, which registered a year-on-year increase of + 22.9%, but that still registers a contraction of -1.3% in the comparison with 2019. The sector is being driven mainly by the higher production of steel, while aluminum registers a slower recovery.

The data available for October indicate mixed trends in the economic activity data, both in the year-on-year comparison, and with respect to 2019. Likewise, in some cases the increases compared to 2019 respond to the worst bases of comparison after the exchange crisis registered at from August.

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