Monday, December 6

The market does not put a ceiling on the dollar

On the other hand, abroad, it is almost an exclusive issue what can be expected from the talks with the IMF, because the perspectives of these investors depend on it. In this regard, the thermal sensation in these virtual encounters had a hint of pessimism. Their reading of the electoral results has not been so encouraging.

This, in part, has been reflected in the price of Argentine assets. Because nor was there a pre-electoral rally, especially after the PASO and it is not expected that there will be any in the short term, beyond some trading opportunities. It seems that not even the so-called distressed funds dare to click something on the table of opportunities, even if they all encourage that Argentina is cheap. There is, yes, interest to do some day trading with bonds, but not to increase positions.

At the local level, everyone counts how many liquid reserves left to the BCRA, especially with a view to the next maturity with the IMF. As for the dollar, although everyone says that it is historically expensive, no one dares to set a ceiling, mainly until they know the much-mentioned multi-year plan that the Government will present.



For now, without a doubt, Patagonia is the place chosen for the “spiritual retreats” of investment funds with clients. The Franklin Templeton and others passed, and one of the most recent was the conclave organized by AR Partners, the manager led by Eduardo Tapia that had as its main course a talk with the legendary investor of emerging markets and former Templeton, Mark Mobius.

The presentation of Lucio costa in a zoom organized by two foreign business chambers where he not only offered his evaluation of the elections, which confirmed the reading they make abroad and in much of the market, about nothing is said for 2023Rather, he presented several methodology that the well-remembered Manuel Mora y Araujo had already been implementing years ago on voting and socioeconomic segmentation and that today explain very well what happened both in JxC and in the FdT.

Who is still in high demand, is not only Franklin’s greenback, small or large face, but the economist Carlos Melconian that sweeps the preferences of local and international funds and banks, and will be the speaker of the next Mediterranean lunch in the Alvear. Those who want to have lunch near the former head of the BNA and listen to his vision of what is coming will cost them no more than the historical value of a wedding set, about $ 100 a blue ($ 20,000 or $ 15,000 depending on whether or not he is a partner of the entity).

Alejandro Werner.jpg

It seems that everyone who had something to do with Argentina at the IMF has an academic and consultant assignment in Washington, as in the case of Alexander Werner, who was the only surviving official of the agreement with Macri, who now ended up at Georgetown University, as the new director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, known as GAI.

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