Correspondent in Paris
The victoriavery fair of the extreme right in the PACA region (Provence – Alps – Côte d’Azur), in the first round of the regional elections, two rounds illustrates with mathematical precision the political “ceiling” of Marine Le Pen.
On Sunday, the candidate of the Agrupación Nacional (AN, far right), in PACA, got 36.38% of the votes, followed by the candidate of the Republicans (LR, traditional right), Renaud Muselier. In third place, in PACA, the candidate of the united left (PS and PCF, more independent) got 16.89%. Historical humiliation: the left have 20 points fewer votes than the extreme right and / or the traditional right, in PACA.
In fourth place, the far-left candidate, Isabelle Bonnet, got 2.76%. Politically insignificant result. In fifth, sixth and seventh place, three other marginal candidates achieved between 0.25 and 2.70%.
Before the second round, the decisive one, next Sunday, the extreme right would have to get all the votes of the first, plus abstention or the vote of voters who voted to the left in the first. Unpredictable bet, at least.
This is a classic situation, for decades. The extreme right candidates achieve good or very good results in the first electoral round. But they do not triumph in the second and decisive, victims of the vote of rejection of the conservative and traditional left voters. The situation today is exactly the same as in 2015. In the last regionals, six years ago, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen won the first lap very brilliantly. But he lost in the second.