Friday, December 8

The PP benefited, Ciudadanos sunk and Por Andalucía y Adelante harmed by their division: this is how the electoral system has affected the results

The PP has achieved 43.1% of the votes in the Andalusian elections, but has taken 53.2% of the seats that make up the regional Parliament. The difference between the two figures is due to the Andalusian electoral system, which tends to reward the party with the most votes and which, on this occasion, has had Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla’s PP as the main beneficiary. With a difference of ten points between its percentage of votes and its percentage of deputies, it has become the formation most favored by the electoral system in the entire history of Andalusian elections.

The PSOE has also benefited, to a lesser extent, which with 24.1% of the votes has obtained 27.5% of the seats.

On the other side of the scale, the parties most affected by this model have been Ciudadanos, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. The formation headed by Juan Marín, with 3.3% of the votes, has disappeared from the regional Parliament. For Andalusia it has registered 7.7% of the votes but it has 4.6% of the seats and Adelante Andalucía, with 4.6% of the votes, obtains 1.8% of the deputies.

Why is this happening? Andalusia’s electoral system, which is practically the same as that used at the national level, rewards the parties with the most votes and those that get the most ballots in the least populated and most overrepresented provinces, where the formations that remain in fifth and sixth position do not they get seats. The constituency is the province, the seats are distributed following the d’Hondt formula and only candidates that have obtained at least 3% of the votes in the corresponding constituency are taken into account.

The regional Parliament is made up of 109 deputies, of which a minimum of eight correspond to each province —to guarantee that depopulated areas have representation and thus prevent them from being abandoned by public policies— and the rest are distributed according to criteria of population. As each province is guaranteed a minimum of eight seats without taking into account the number of inhabitants, the disproportion between inhabitants and deputies has been maintained throughout all the Andalusian elections.

In total, more than 300,000 votes from this 19J have been left without representation. The most obvious case is that of Ciudadanos, which disappears from the institution by not winning any seats – it is the sixth force in most constituencies – and loses its more than 120,000 ballots. By number of votes, it was followed by Adelante Andalucía, which lost 41% of them (69,545) and Por Andalucía (44,423 ballots, which account for 16% of its total). PACMA also does not get representation and loses its more than 35,000 votes.

What effect does the division of the vote on the left have on the seats?

The electoral system and the distribution of seats by provinces make it difficult for the fifth and sixth parties to obtain representation, as has been explained. In provinces such as Almería, where Adelante Andalucía won a seat in 2018 with 9.7% of the vote, now neither of the two forces that made up the space —Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía— manage to win any deputy with 5 % and 1.7% of the votes, respectively.

The same thing happens in Huelva, where both formations leave empty with 6.5% and 4% of the votes and lose the deputy who four years ago did obtain Adelante Andalucía.

The division of the vote of the left and the effect on the seats

Comparison of the percentage of votes obtained by the three main forces of the left in 2018 and 2022. Click to see more details


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Source: Junta de Andalucía

If Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía had participated in the elections in a joint candidacy, they would have achieved 12 deputies —assuming they had obtained the same number of votes—, five more than the seven of this 19J. For the rest, the Parliament that draws this simulation is similar: the PP would have also reached the absolute majority although without margin (just 55 seats), Vox would remain at 14 deputies and the PSOE would lose two, staying at 28.

How would the Parliament of Andalusia have been if the left had gone together?

Simulation of the distribution of seats in the Andalusian Parliament if the candidates for Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía had gone together and had the same votes

What would the results be like with a single constituency?

With a single constituency system, the PP would not have achieved an absolute majority —located at 55 seats— and would have obtained eight fewer deputies: 50. The PSOE would also lose deputies, with 28 instead of 30, while Vox would win one, 15 .

The Ciudadanos debacle would be minor: with this model it would reach three seats, so that, although it would be far from the 21 in the last elections, it would maintain its presence in the regional Chamber. The left-wing candidacies would also win both seats: Por Andalucía would obtain eight instead of five and Adelante Andalucía five instead of two.

How would the Parliament of Andalusia have been with a single constituency?

Simulation of the allocation of seats in the Andalusian Parliament with a single constituency system with an electoral barrier of 3% using 2022 data