Saturday, April 1

The pressure on the dollar returns in the Stock Market: CCL cut the downward streak and exceeded $220

Specifically, the price valued with the GD30 bond it increased 0.6% ($1.27) to settle at $220.21, for which the gap with the wholesale exchange rate, which is regulated by the BCRA, grew to 109.1%.

For its part, The MEP or Stock Exchange dollar increased 0.4% (83 cents) to $211.71. In this way, the spread with the official reached 101%.

Investors continue to closely monitor how the ruling party will settle its internal differences regarding the principle of agreement with the IMF, after the resignation of Máximo Kirchner as president of the Frente de Todos bloc in the Chamber of Deputies.

“After the initial post-agreement contraction with the agency, financial – and free – dollars appear calmer and more expectant of the evolution of political events given that broad support will be necessary to implement the economic roadmap, including facing a sharp slowdown in monetary financing,” said a market source.

Less than a week after announcing the understanding, President Alberto Fernández said during his visit to Russia that Argentina must abandon its “dependence” on the United States and the IMF.

Despite the tensions, the SBS Group assured that “the government intends to have the agreement with the IMF closed by the month of March”, before the harvest and a maturity close to US$3,000 million with the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva.

The deal, which still needs to be approved by the Argentine Congress and by the board of directors of the multilateral credit organization, has a duration of two and a half years, involves a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit and sets ambitious goals in terms of reducing aid from the BCRA to the Treasury and the increase in reserves.

Analysts foresee a complicated scenario in terms of foreign exchange accumulation, since in February it is common for the demand for pesos to carry out transactions to contract and it is also usually the month with the lowest liquidation of “greenbacks” for exports.

Added to this is a drought that could impact the harvest. This Thursday the Cereal Exchange reported an expected soybean production of 42 million tons for the 2021/2022 campaign, two million lower compared to previous estimates.

“The lack of surface moisture on both ends of the agricultural area prevented the initial planting plans from being carried out, leaving a total of 200,000 hectares out of the current cycle,” the entity said in its weekly report.

“Additionally, as a result of the high temperatures and the tight water reserves on the cores during their critical period, the potential output could drop by up to 30%,” he added.

official dollar

The official exchange rate advanced 11 cents in the wholesale segment and ended Thursday at $105.31. With this adjustment, the currency is heading for a higher weekly rise than last week, although this is not enough to warn of a change in the BCRA’s strategy regarding the rate of devaluation.

The monetary authority was able to buy US$5 million from its intervention in the foreign exchange market, which meant its first positive balance in February.

In this framework, and after the payments to the IMF last week, net reserves, that is, those that do not have a liability as a counterparty (excludes swaps with China, for example), will end the week at around US$1 billion.

A report by the consulting firm 1816 warned that a discreet jump in the exchange rate “is the last thing that the Executive Power will be willing to give up” within the framework of the agreement with the IMF, since a devaluation of 20% or 30% could imply an acceleration of the monthly inflation rate of the order of 7%/8%.

However, he did not dare to rule it out since “the Government may at some point run out of options.” In that sense, from the entity they predicted that if a sudden devaluation is avoided in the next 40 days, there will probably not be one in the rest of Alberto Fernández’s term, since from April the soybean dollars enter and the corn, and then the presidential elections of 2023 begin to approach.

For its part, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retail plus taxes- closed stable this day at $183.02, given that the retail -without taxes- remained at $110.92.

The blue dollar cut a streak of three consecutive rises this Thursday, February 3, 2022, by yielding 50 cents to $216, according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market. Therefore, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate narrowed slightly to 105.1%.

In this way, the parallel erased the initial rise that had led it to touch $217. It was the first fall in four days, after suffering a sharp drop of $10 last Friday as a reaction to the announcement of the principle agreement with the IMF.