The CGPJ is not renewed because they do not want Pablo Casado first and Carlos Lesmes, later. The first justifies his position in one way and the second in another. But both share the same diagnosis: with the current composition of the Cortes Generales, it is preferable that there be no renewal.
It would be enough for one to change his mind for the renovation to be unavoidable. But as long as that change of opinion does not take place, the CGPJ will continue as it is.
Both of them know it. It would be enough for Carlos Lesmes to notify Pablo Casado of his intention to resign from his post, for the blockade to end. If he does not do so, it is because he prefers to continue in the current situation, which allows him to continue making speeches like the one he made this morning at the opening of the judicial year.
The rule for the renewal of the CGPJ in 2021 is the same as the one used in 2013. It is a rule approved by the PP, which had an absolute majority to be able to do so. And it is practically certain that the Minister of Justice at that time, Alberto Ruiz Gallardón, consulted Carlos Lesmes about the content of the report. Neither Casado nor Lesmes have, consequently, any legitimacy to demand the reform of the election formula as a precondition for renewal.
The renewal time is running out. There are just over two years left for the call for the next general elections. The closer the date of the elections approaches, the more difficult it will be to reach an agreement for the renewal of the CGPJ. Either the renewal occurs before the end of 2021 or we can practically forget that it will happen. In 2022 the electoral cycle begins again with the Andalusian elections in December and in 2023 there are municipal and regional elections in May and general elections in November. Is it going to be possible to reach an agreement under such conditions?
And if you go to a general election with a CGPJ without renewing, will it be possible to do it later? It is not only the renewal, but the very survival of the CGPJ that is being called into question.
But there is more. If the CGPJ is not renewed, the four Magistrates of the Constitutional Court will not be renewed with the mandate already expired, nor will the renewal of the Ombudsman or the Court of Accounts take place. Can it be done later?
Only Pablo Casado and Carlos Lesmes can put an end to the agonizing situation in which all the constitutional bodies are entering for which a qualified majority is required in the election of their members. Because the renewal of the CGPJ depends on that of all the others.
We will see.