Friday, September 29

The results of the 28M municipal elections if they had been general elections: the PP wins but the left can govern

The PP would be the main force in the Congress of Deputies if the results of the municipal elections this Sunday are transferred to the state level. To do this, the result of each party in each of the provinces has been used and, based on the distribution of seats in each of them, the d’Hont law has been applied in search of an approximation of how Parliament would be with the 28M votes. The popular ones would achieve 138 seats and would be the first party in the chamber. They would be followed by the PSOE, with 121 representatives, Podemos-IU-Sumar, with 24 and Vox, with 14.

MAP | Who wins in each town hall? The results of the 28M elections, municipality by municipality


Always according to this simulation, PP and Vox would not add enough support for a hypothetical investiture of a right-wing president. The Socialists, on the other hand, could reach the Government if they add their seats to those of Podemos-IU-Sumar and the nationalist and independentist forces.

It must be taken into account that this is a fictitious exercise since voting in municipal elections is very different from general elections. For example, in the smallest municipalities only PP and PSOE are usually present and voters cannot vote for smaller parties. In addition, this projection has unified all the candidacies of the municipal elections to the left of the PSOE in a hypothetical confluence of the left.

The calculation has been made by applying the result of the municipal elections in each province according to the number of seats they distributed in the general elections of November 2019.

To elaborate this transposition of the results of the municipal elections, all the candidacies of the municipal elections where Podemos, IU (including Zaragoza in Común), En Comú Podem, Compromís, Més, Más were unified under the name Podemos-IU-Sumar. Madrid (and derivatives of Más País) and Marea Atlántica, among others. But the calculation has not included the multitude of smaller groups and parties that this Sunday attended in the different provinces. That is why the simulation benefits the two big parties that do compete with the same acronyms in all the territories.