Sunday, August 14

The Spanish economy grew 2% in the third quarter and moderates the government’s forecasts

The Spanish economy grew 2% in the third quarter of the year, nine tenths more than in the second, according to the advance of National Accounts data published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). It is a rebound compared to the rise of 1.1% in the second quarter and the fall of 0.6% in the first, thanks to the gradual lifting of restrictions to contain the covid-19 pandemic.

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The GDP advance data moderates the government’s macroeconomic scenario, which foresees that the Spanish economy will grow by 6.5% this year and 7% in 2022. This week, the governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, anticipated that will make “a significant downward revision” of their economic growth forecasts for Spain for this year – they projected a GDP growth of 6.3% in 2021 – after the INE changed its previous estimates significantly downwards. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 from 2.8% to 1.1%. For his part, Calviño defended in September that the Executive’s forecasts are “prudent”, relying on the forecasts announced by the OECD that place Spain as the country that will grow the most this year in the European Union with an increase in GDP of 6, 8% in 2021.

GDP growth in the summer months was mainly driven by investment, which increased by 1.3%, compared to the decline of 2.2% last quarter. Consumption, for its part, contracted by 0.3% between July and September, in contrast to the 3.5% increase that it experienced in the second quarter. Household consumption fell by 0.5%, compared to the 4.7% rebound in the previous quarter, while public spending moderated its growth eight tenths, from 0.9% to 0.1% in the known data this Friday.

In year-on-year rate, GDP increased 2.7%, compared to 17.5% in the second quarter, due to the lower push in national demand. Specifically, its contribution to GDP was 1.5 points, almost 16 points less than in the previous quarter. Foreign demand, for its part, contributed 1.2 points to the year-on-year growth of GDP, one point more than in the previous quarter.

The INE recalls that this advance data is prepared with the information currently available on economic evolution. Most of the short-term statistical indicators currently offer results up to the second month of the quarter (August).

However, as has already occurred in the advancement of results in recent quarters, the INE has also been able to count on advanced results from some of its sources referring to the month of September, estimates of indicators based on administrative data and other additional sources that complement the usual ones, in line with the recommendations of Eurostat and other international statistical organizations. However, he points out, the volume of advanced information that has been made available in this advance “has been less than on previous occasions.”

This means that the advance data released this Friday could vary when the final data is released. This was already the case in the second quarter when GDP growth of 2.8% was advanced, which later fell to 1.1%.