Friday, March 29

They predict earthquakes 48 hours in advance and 80% certainty | Digital Trends Spanish


A team of Israeli researchers from the Ariel University and the Research and Development Center of the Eastern Branch, published a study where they provide the keys to predict earthquakes 48 hours in advance and up to 80% accuracy.

This appeared in the scientific journal remote sensing in May and would be based on changes in the Earth’s ionosphere.

The researchers defined large earthquakes as those that exceed Mw 6 on the Moment magnitude scale, which measures the magnitude of an earthquake based on its seismic motion.

Angelo Giordano/Pixabay

The method developed by the team saw them implement a machine learning support vector machine (SVM) technique, applied with GPS map data of the total ionospheric electron content to calculate their electron charge density.

During earthquakes strong, the vertical movement of the ground surface causes undulating disturbances in the atmosphere (Acoustic Gravity Waves, AGW) that propagate vertically until they reach the ionosphere. The time it takes to do it is of the order of 8-10 minutes.

In an investigation in Chile, CIGIDEN (Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management) researcher Mahesh Shrivastava argued that, “Modern seismology widely uses GPS to understand the nucleation and propagation of earthquakes and has shown that the Surface deformation, related to the propagation of earthquakes and tsunamis, produces ionospheric changes in the total electron content. Therefore, we are talking about a new way of detecting tsunamis, through the total content of ionospheric electrons recorded by GPS”.

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