According to Equilibra, the value of exports of goods and services forecast for next year will be similar to that of 2021. Commodity prices would remain above historical levels, although they will decline with respect to average this year, which would be offset by a moderate rise in quantities. Given this scenario, Dollars to expand the activity could only come from an improvement in the financial front that is not perceived in the short term.
With this scenario, the Central Bank, without reducing the limited stock of reserves, would have foreign exchange to import goods and services for US $ 78.2 billion. This implies an increase of US $ 6.2 billion, which represents 8.5% compared to this year’s level. “Assuming a 6% rise in import prices in dollars, the volume of purchases would climb only 2.4%. This means that the maximum growth for next year would be 1% ”, the report says.
The consulting firm headed by Martín Rapetti estimated a new increase in the Consumer Price Index that would reach 57% in 2022. On that point, it would add to the inflationary pressures that already weigh on the economy, a segmented increase in service rates public that would come from the hand of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
“Whatever the result, we insist that agreeing with the Fund is a necessary but not sufficient condition to reduce uncertainty, provide a horizon for the economy and, if successful, ease the external restriction. But we also warn that ordering the economy implies fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and tariff adjustments that, in the short term, would slow down domestic demand and keep inflation above 50% per year ”, points out Equilibra.
In the 2022 scenario, the pace of devaluation is also expected to accelerate. The official exchange rate would grow at a speed of 58.2%. The strategy chosen by the Government would not imply a sudden jump, but it would accelerate the crawling peg. The average official dollar would climb to $ 166.10. Financial dollars would reach $ 290 and the gap would narrow, from 109.5% to 75%.
Finally, high inflation and low growth would result in a contraction in consumption. Salaries would not reach the advance of prices and in the accumulated of the year they would fall by 1.9%.