Sunday, May 22

US natgas futures hit 13-year high on cold forecast


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US natural gas futures jumped as much as 6.8% on Monday, hitting a more than

13-year peak, on expectations of colder weather that could boost heating demand.

Front-month gas futures were up 5.9% at $7.733 per million British thermal units at 10:15 am EDT

(1415 GMT), having earlier hit their highest since September 2008.

“A larger expansion (in deficit) appears on tap … given this week’s unusually cold patterns across the

mid-continent region,” advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

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“This dynamic of deficit expansion driven by an unusually cold April is combining with continued strong

export demand toward Europe in increasing the market’s upside possibilities.”

Data provider Refinitiv estimated 156 degree heating days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48

US states, higher than the 30-year norm of 129 HDDs for this time of year.

HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day’s average

temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius).

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 15 average

(Forecast) (Actual) Apr 15

US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +35 +15 +42 +42

US total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,432 1,397 1,878 1,742

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US total storage versus 5-year average -17.8% -17.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2021 (2017-2021)

Henry Hub 7.54 7.11 2.69 3.73 2.89

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) — 30.95 7.15 16.04 7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 25.37 32.93 7.80 18.00 8.95

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

US GFS HDDs 156 147 139 131 129

US GFS CDDs 44 44 37 44 42

US GFS TDDs 200 191 176 175 171

Refinitiv US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year

Last Year Average For

Month

US Supply (bcfd)

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US Lower 48 Dry Production 94.6 94.12 94.4 91.2 84.8

US Imports from Canada 7.9 8.10 7.7 8.0 7.8

US LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total US Supply 102.5 102.2 102.2 99.2 92.7

US Demand (bcfd)

US Exports to Canada 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.6

US Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.9 5.7 6.2 4.6

US LNG Exports 12.4 12.3 12.5 11.6 5.2

US Commercial 8.8 9.4 7.6 8.9 8.3

US Residential 12.1 13.4 9.8 12.2 11.8

US Power Plant 23.8 25.2 25.4 26.0 24.0

US Industrial 22.7 22.8 22.2 23.3 22.0

US Plant Fuel 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6

US Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2

US Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total US Consumption 74.1 77.7 71.8 77.3 73.0

Total US Demand 94.9 98.5 92.6 97.3 85.4

US weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

Apr 22 Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 1 Mar 25

Wind 16 17 15 15 15

Solar 4 4 4 4 3

Hydro 7 7 8 8 8

Other 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 32 32 33 32 31

Coal 20 19 19 19 18

Nuclear 20 19 19 20 21

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng and Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Pravin Char)

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