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US natural gas futures jumped as much as 6.8% on Monday, hitting a more than
13-year peak, on expectations of colder weather that could boost heating demand.
Front-month gas futures were up 5.9% at $7.733 per million British thermal units at 10:15 am EDT
(1415 GMT), having earlier hit their highest since September 2008.
“A larger expansion (in deficit) appears on tap … given this week’s unusually cold patterns across the
mid-continent region,” advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
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“This dynamic of deficit expansion driven by an unusually cold April is combining with continued strong
export demand toward Europe in increasing the market’s upside possibilities.”
Data provider Refinitiv estimated 156 degree heating days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48
US states, higher than the 30-year norm of 129 HDDs for this time of year.
HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day’s average
temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius).
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 15 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Apr 15
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +35 +15 +42 +42
US total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,432 1,397 1,878 1,742
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US total storage versus 5-year average -17.8% -17.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub 7.54 7.11 2.69 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) — 30.95 7.15 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 25.37 32.93 7.80 18.00 8.95
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
US GFS HDDs 156 147 139 131 129
US GFS CDDs 44 44 37 44 42
US GFS TDDs 200 191 176 175 171
Refinitiv US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
US Supply (bcfd)
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US Lower 48 Dry Production 94.6 94.12 94.4 91.2 84.8
US Imports from Canada 7.9 8.10 7.7 8.0 7.8
US LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total US Supply 102.5 102.2 102.2 99.2 92.7
US Demand (bcfd)
US Exports to Canada 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.6
US Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.9 5.7 6.2 4.6
US LNG Exports 12.4 12.3 12.5 11.6 5.2
US Commercial 8.8 9.4 7.6 8.9 8.3
US Residential 12.1 13.4 9.8 12.2 11.8
US Power Plant 23.8 25.2 25.4 26.0 24.0
US Industrial 22.7 22.8 22.2 23.3 22.0
US Plant Fuel 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6
US Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2
US Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total US Consumption 74.1 77.7 71.8 77.3 73.0
Total US Demand 94.9 98.5 92.6 97.3 85.4
US weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Apr 22 Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 1 Mar 25
Wind 16 17 15 15 15
Solar 4 4 4 4 3
Hydro 7 7 8 8 8
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 32 32 33 32 31
Coal 20 19 19 19 18
Nuclear 20 19 19 20 21
(Reporting by Eileen Soreng and Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Pravin Char)
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