Saturday, September 30

US yields advance broadly as strong payrolls reinforce continued Fed tightening

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NEW YORK — US Treasury yields rose

sharply on Friday after data showed the world’s largest economy

created far more jobs than expected in July, bolstering

expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest

rates in the next few meetings to slow inflation.

The rise in US Treasury yields, from two-year notes to

30-year bonds, ranged from 10 to 22 basis points (bps).

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve

inverted by as much as -45 bps on Friday, the deepest inversion

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since August 2000, as investors priced in a 75-bps Fed rate hike

next month after the strong payrolls number. The curve was last

inverted by -41 bps.

The inversion of this yield curve preceded the last eight

US recessions, analysts said.

The latest jobs report, though, suggested that the US

economy is nowhere near recession right now.

Data showed US nonfarm payrolls increased by 528,000 jobs

last month. The number for June was revised slightly higher to

show 398,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported


Average hourly earnings, a gauge of wage inflation and a key

metric tracked by the Fed, climbed 0.5% after rising 0.4% in

June, the data showed. That left the year-on-year increase in

wages at 5.2%, compared with forecasts for a 4.9% rise.

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“Another very strong payrolls report is going to put the Fed

firmly back on their hawkish path,” wrote PIMCO economists

Tiffany Wilding and Allison Boxer.

“Wage inflation was again firm: a sign that core price

inflation will remain sticky despite some relief in food and

energy prices over the coming months. A 75-basis-point rate hike

in September is now likely to be the base case for Fed

officials, as they pull forward additional hikes in 2022 yet

again,” they added.

US rate futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 75 bps

hike, up from about 41% before the payrolls data. Futures

traders have also factored in a fed funds rate of 3.57% and

additional tightening of around 122 bps by the end of the year.

In afternoon trading, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes

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was up 15 bps at 2.8287%.

On the week, 10-year yields climbed 18 bps, the largest

increase in one month.

US 30-year bond yields rose nearly 10 bps to 3.0605%

. It advanced to two-week peaks of 3.106% on the day.

On a weekly basis, 30-year yields were up nearly 9 bps, a

one-month high.

At the short end of the curve, the US two-year yield

which typically tracks interest rate expectations,

hit a two-week high of 3.25% and was last up 20.7 bps at


This yield rose 34 bps this week, the biggest weekly rise in

about two months.

August 5 Friday 3:49PM New York / 1949 GMT

Price Current Net

Yield % Change


Three-month bills 2.4975 2.5476 0.105

Six-month bills 2.9725 3.0587 0.109

Two-year note 99-138/256 3.2422 0.205

Three-year note 99-124/256 3.1849 0.216

Five-year note 99 2.9675 0.192

Seven-year note 98-52/256 2.9113 0.175

10-year note 100-96/256 2.8305 0.154

20-year bond 99-164/256 3.2746 0.130

30-year bond 96-80/256 3.0646 0.104


Last (bps) Net



US 2-year dollar swap 25.25 -2.00


US 3-year dollar swap 8.25 -2.00


US 5-year dollar swap 3.50 -0.50


US 10-year dollar swap 5.75 -0.25


US 30-year dollar swap -30.25 -0.50


(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by David

Goodman, David Holmes and Cynthia Osterman)



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