Friday, October 7

Wave of purchases in tourism after the results: the sector strengthens the IBEX at 9,000

Actions related to tourism soared this Friday after presenting their results and showing the first signs of recovery from the impact of the pandemic.

The hotelier Meliá went up 8 percent; the airline group IAG 6 percent and the reserve group Amadeus 5 percent. They formed the podium of the IBEX and closed the week with the highest revaluation of the selective, acting as a motor in the consolidation above 9,000 points of the index.

Although the losses continue for these companies, the greater influx of tourists during the summer months allowed them to reduce the hole left by the health crisis in the last quarter, although threats such as the appearance of the delta strain.

IAG: one year per lost

IAG will still have to wait for its recovery. Iberia’s parent company reported losses up to September of 2,622 million, slightly below those expected by the consensus, but the problems come from the guidance offered.

For the year as a whole, IAG projects red numbers of 3,000 million, so it would end the year with losses of 400 million in the last quarter; 200 million above what the consensus calculated for 2021.

However, investors rewarded the stocks for some of the reported numbers.

Passenger revenue was nearly $ 2 billion, which despite still 70 percent below third-quarter 2019 levels, accounted for the bulk of total revenue.

In addition, IAG expects to operate at 60 percent of its capacity in the last quarter, so it would return to the numbers of two years ago. The airline conglomerate also expects to fully operate its routes in the North Atlantic by the summer of next year.

“The results exceed forecasts at the operating level, the company reinforces the level of liquidity to historical highs and announces an operating result target slightly worse than that discounted by the consensus,” said Renta 4 analysts in a comment.

A barrage of analysts revised their position on IAG. Brokers Free y Bernstein they maintained their buy recommendation, as did the Spanish Bestinver y JB Capital. Mornignstar y Stifel, for their part, they raised the target price above 3 euros compared to the 2.10 at which it closed this Friday.

Meliá and Amadeus: firm step

Meliá, for its part, presented its figures on Thursday at the market close. One of the most striking indicators was the net debt, which is stabilized at 1.26 billion in June.

The hotel chain reduced its losses by 64 percent to 166 million, below what was expected by the consensus of analysts, and improved its liquidity figures to 439 million compared to 405 million the previous quarter.

“The most important thing is that Meliá does not consume cash this quarter for the first time since the arrival of the virus and improves its liquidity position. The company expects the strong recovery in demand to continue, especially in resorts ”, they explain at Bankinter.

There is a certain division among analysts. The signatures Oddo, GVC Gaesco and Societe Generale indicated the purchase on Friday, a day after knowing the figures, while others such as Intermoney or Alantra They recommended undoing positions in the hotel.

Regarding Amadeus, the group returned to a positive quarter for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Between July and September it earned 9 million euros, while in the same quarter of last year it lost 160 million.

Losses in the first nine months of the year were reduced by 66 percent to 121 million euros. At this point, the restructuring process of the company influenced.

“It is allowing to reduce fixed expenses and capex more than expected. They hope to exceed the cost savings target in 2021, although the improvement will not be recurring ”, pointed out the Income 4 analysts.

As with Meliá, analysts are divided on its track record on the stock market, leaving IAG the market favorite among tourism stocks.

Amadeus garnered buy recommendations from firms like JP Morgan o Jefferies, which raised its target price above 70 euros compared to the 62 euros on which it is trading now.

GVC Gaesco and Intermoney, for their part, recommended keeping the titles, which they see in a range of between 50 and 55 euros. More pessimism came from the reviews of Mirabaud and Barclays, which recommended the sale and yielded target prices of between 40 and 45 euros.