Sunday, October 1

What is the floor and ceiling of the blue dollar for 2022, according to the market

Although in the accumulated of 2021 it exhibited an increase of barely 25.3% (against an estimated annual inflation of around 50%), the gap with the official remains above 100%, a level considered unsustainable by analysts. The historical record dates from October 2020 (149.6%), while the 2021 record was verified last October 11 (106.1%).

The market outlook for the coming year depends largely on developments in the negotiations with the IMF. Walter Morales, president of Wise, told Ámbito that from the consultancy they handle two scenarios, depending on whether or not a pact with the multilateral credit organization is reached.

If the Government reaches a point in common with the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva, the financial advisor envisions a blue dollar between $ 245 and $ 255 by December 2022, which would imply an annual increase of between 20% and 25%, approximately. “It is not that expectations are going to improve significantly, but they will do so slightly,” he deepened.

In addition, Morales warns that the agreement would lead to an adjustment in the wholesale dollar, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), which “would allow a compression of the gap with respect to the blue.”

With a similar look, the economist Gustavo Ber He maintained in dialogue with this media that an agreement with the Fund that “not only postpones the bulky maturities, but also achieves consensus on an economic roadmap to correct economic imbalances, could reduce the exchange rate gap.”

The analyst also expects changes in the exchange rate regime and an acceleration in the rate of the “crawling-peg”, “since it cannot allow itself to follow the dynamics of draining net reserves.”

In the event that there is no agreement with the IMF, an option that today seems the least likely, Morales assures that the “blue has no ceiling.”

Cohen’s Head of Strategy, Juan Jose Vasquez, agreed that the performance of the parallel dollar depends on many factors, and in large part on the negotiations with the Fund.

“Then there would be a government plan and financing for 2022 to be evaluated. If there are no corrections in the Macro, and taking into account that the expected inflation for next year is 52% according to the REM, it is necessary to think of a blue of $ 300 by the end of 2022 as a probable scenario“, he detailed.

For its part, last week the consulting firm specialized in corporate finance, Focus Finanzas, published a survey on Twitter in which the majority of voters estimate a blue dollar between $ 250 and $ 325 by the end of 2022.